Investment "Logic"

On Monday, I closed out my position on Raytheon at a price of $169.50 as I mentioned looking to do in my earnings recap, here.  This close out may have been a bit premature, given the stock is another $6 higher than my sell point, but there was no way knowing that and I wanted to close out the position quickly to avoid any further losses, given the truly sad outlook the company provided for 2019.  In an effort to put money back to work that I have collected from my sales, I have purchased a 25% position in BP PLC, an oil stock yielding over 6% at the time of purchase.  I've been wanting to buy this stock for a little while now, but with earnings so close, I decided it best to wait, plus I wanted to get rid of something before I added more.  As a result, BP posted impressive numbers on Tuesday morning and the stock took off.  My purchase price was $42.75 and while I'd like to get the stock priced more at $40, I'm not sure that will be possible any more with...

On January 9, I pulled the trigger and purchased another one-sixth of a full position in Canopy Growth Company at a price of $32.80.  This wasn't at a lower price or below $30 as my last purchase, which was a bit disappointing, but the stock had started to build a trend that it wasn't going to sell off again, so I bought in - despite the stock being up over 5% at the time.  This also followed what was interpreted as a disappointing fourth quarter earnings result from Constellation Brands, who has provided a significant investment into Canopy.  It was clear that commentary around the cannabis investment were strong and that more positive results were expected as we hear more from the industry.  Since the announcement and the purchase, the stock has continued to climb unabated, closing the week at a price of $38.25 - a 16% increase from my purchase price.  I don not  expect this climb to continue like this, given the stock has risen over 30% on the week a...

On Jan 7, I sold another third of my position in Raytheon at a price of $154.90.  As I said in my last trade , I've decided that while the company itself is strong, that I don't feel it is in a sector that has favorable outlooks at this time.  There is too much uncertainty around the FY20 budget with the new Democrat-led congress.  Given that prices have been on a rebounding jump, I felt the price increase warranted lightening up on my holding at increasing my cash position so it would be available to go after better options, should the market take a turn down again. Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Nothing on this site should be taken as advice, research, or an invitatio...

Yesterday I made the move to do some stock trades.  I bought back the shares I sold a long time ago to put my money back to work (instead of just playing with the house's) at $173.80 and I sold a third of my position of Raytheon at 153.38.  These moves were made after we got a very strong jobs report and Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell finally softened his stance on the economy, inflation, and the need to raise rates. Home Depot While I certainly didn't get this stock as low as I would've liked to, it was harder to pull the trigger then because I had less favorable scenarios to work with.  With less pressure of rising rates, ongoing positivity for job and wage growth that isn't growing wildly, and 10-year rates now back down around 2.67% we have an environment that can be helpful to home building, buying, and remodeling again.  With spring around the corner and a consumer that has proven to be strong through the holiday season, I expect to see further ...

After watching the stock drop to the low 30s and start jumping back up with what appears to be a turn in the overall market, I have decided to purchase one ninth of a position of Canopy at a price of $36.50.  This is a very small position to take advantage of prices significanctly below my cost basis while also leaving me room for the stock to go back down further - given that I am making this purchase at a time the stock is up over 8% on the day.  I continue to belive that Canopy is the best - potentially the only direct pot play and I play it as a speculation for long-term gains as the company continues to gain footing and take market share of failed companies in countries where cannabis is legal as well as being a leader into the next countries that legalize it.  Additionally, I am not convinced the stock is done going down.  I still believe prices in the 20s are possible, and as such this is why I'm taking a more concerted effort to buy smaller positions....

Yesterday, I received a small number of shares of Honeywell spinoff Rezidio as a part of the spin-off process.  I have decided to sell the entire position at a price of $25.51.  While I expect the company to perform well long-term, in the short-term this is a declining sector given the slowdown we've seen in home building and company investments.  I anticipate the company to have to deal with this pressure over the next several quarters as a result and do not expect the stock to perform well.  One thing that I do see as an interesting opportunity for this company is what happens with the United Technologies/Rockwell Collins merger.  Should China decide to let this deal happen, United Technologies will likely split itself into 3 companies which will also include a home/HVAC space that I can see merging or being bought by Rezidio in the future.  That said, I don't think the homework effort is worth the small number of shares I will have in the company as ...

On October 19 I filled another third of my expected position of Canopy Growth Company at $48.50.  At the time I placed the order, the stock was showing a strong floor in the $45 - $48 range and was really struggling to get below $48.  Given the stock had recently run up to the mid-50s and Canada's prohibition ended two days earlier.  I felt the amount the stock pulled back seemed reasonable on the sell the news situation and dove in.  We now know that choice was rather early, given the stock is now in the 38s after having hit as low as the 36s.  Given the current market conditions and overall chart health, I'll be sitting back for a bit to see when/where this stock stabilizes before I think about filling my position.  $35 is certainly a price area of interest, but I've also read that the stock could get down into the 20s.  It's important to remember that a huge portion of this company's value is in cash from investment from Constellation Brands....

Yesterday I sold approximately one third of my position in Cedar Fair (FUN) at a price of $55.25.  This price represented a net loss of around 11.1% (tax harvested).  As I stated in my Disney initation here , I wasn't pleased with the results I've been seeing from the amusement park industry and noticed there seems to be something larger than just weather driving the lower than expected results (not to mention I've taken way too long to react to what I was seeing).  As such, I'm shifting away from Cedar Fair in favor of Disney for a more broadly diversified holding that doesn't rely on just amusement parks, but entertainment more broadly.  Third quarter results are coming up towards the end of the month and should they provide solid results, I may get a price pop I can take advantage of and maybe even get a small profit from.  In the meantime, I wanted to sell this position to pay for the Disney shares I grabbed.  I am waiting for my next DIS purch...

On Thursday, I purchased approximately one third of a full position in Walt Disney Corporation (DIS), otherwise known as Disney.  This expands my portfolio into the entertainment space, given I currently hold shares of Cedar Fair (FUN).  The purpose of this purchase is to begin a transition away from Cedar Fair.  The company and the stock has not been performing up to expectations as of late.  Despite the strong dividend of over 5%, the company lost all of the capital gains I had in it and then some.  This was poor management on my part.  Regardless of what I did or didn't do right with Cedar Fair, I still have faith in the Entertainment industry.  However, I felt it would be more appropriate to diversify myself outside of just amusement parks.  I feel the timing of this switch is ideal too.  Besides the theme parks which Disney has and are doing well, they have TV via ABC channels and ESPN, which is starting to turn itself around with it...

Last week I bought an initial position in Canopy Growth Corporation at a share price of $50.  This company is an early entrant to the Canadian Pot industry as a producer of both medical and recreational marijuana, a new market that opens up the first of October, now that the country has legalized it. Pot stock have been hot - really really hot.  There's no doubt that many of them, Canopy probably included, are over valued right now.  While I was looking to speculate there's a lot of publicity in this area right now.  I would say that I felt Canopy was one of the better stocks, though we all know there's another out there that has been surging in astronomical proportions due to shortage of stock availability.  The nice thing about Canopy is that they're adequately capitalized and won't likely look to raise cash through offering more shares.  However, there are a lot of other companies out there that will need to and even more that will be looking to go p...

Today was a wild day for Ionis.  After FDA results for a competing drug failed to show signs that it was effective enough to prevent competition for FCS in the mix, IONS was up over 10% at varying points during the day.  I was contemplating selling some, given I was finally back in the green on the stock.  However, there was a PDUFA meeting coming on Thursday for the approval on Volanasorsen on the radar and I didn't want to try to sell out and hope to get back in to maximize gains (typically after a big jump, the stock sells off for a couple days).  Then after the bell, the stock was halted as the FDA issued a Complete Response Letter (CRL) notifiying their holding company Akcea that they have rejected their drug Walivra on serious concerns on safety with antisense oligonucleotide drugs.  This puts the upcoming PDUFA in some jeapordy and the future PDUFA for Inotersen in serious jeapordy (due to the fact it suffered a death related to platelet issues), sign...

In preparation of the second portion of the CCAR results that will be announced tomorrow, I refilled my position in Citigroup today, purchasing shares at $66.  Unfortunately, I didn't get shares purchased yesterday when the stock was in the $64s and then I pulled the trigger a little too early today, as the market started making a massive swing to the down side around the time of my purchase.  My reasoning for purchasing the stock was that it was near the price target area I've been hoping for since I sold up in the $72 range and we now have a catalyst which I believe will charge all bank stocks in the second half of the year.  The CCAR results have been an inflection point for bank stocks, historically, as they are then allowed to start to distribute their excess capital as per agreement with the Fed.  I believe that Citi's captial distribution plan will be well received by the Fed, enabling them to distribute approximately $20B in dividends and stock buy...

After much contemplation, I decided it was time to move into a new position today and purchased half of my position in Raytheon at $188.50.  Raytheon is a defense company primarily known for the production of Patriot Missiles - a surface to air anti-missle defense system.  However, they also produce other items, play in cyber security and deep analytical analysis as well.  My theory is related to the fact that the US is looking to bolster their own military capabilities, to which Trump's declaration for a space force added to, but also the fact that the US is no longer spending as much of its money to protect its allies.  This means they need to increase their own purchases and Trump is using defense as something he's trying to push in all of his trade discussions.  These situations, I believe, spell out a strong runway towards ongoing profits in what is generally a robust global economy right now.  It is true that the Trade war pressures has the potent...

Today I increased my position in Pepsico by 25% at a price of $97.25.  While I haven't had a chance to complete my homework and post my review on the company's first quarter results, I do know the company beat expectations and provided a solid set of results for the quarter.  The one thing that I noted to like, in particular, was the fact that North American Beverages (NAB) didn't do as bad as analysts expected.  While there is some concern on all of the China and Tariff talks impacting the stock and the fact that the company is seeing more competition against the 10-year treasury, we've now seen the stock drop roughly 21% from its 52 week highs.  This selloff is getting to be over done and any good news could sent the stock higher.  If the stock drops to $92.75 we'll see the stock yielding 4% and that's far from typical for this consistent player.  I do have more room in my position and cash levels to take advantage of more down side - and I do see pot...

Yesterday I sold my entire stake of the iShares MCI Eurozone ETF at a price of $43.825.  While I haven't been able to post my weekly summary due to technical problems, followed by a busy life, I had written that the picture for that holding has started to change pretty significantly.  First, there is a lot of Tariff talk going on.  The EU is starting to look to Tariff the US after we set tariffs on steel and aluminum.  This is taking a hit to the market, overall, and makes it difficult to see as much growth and momentum for European companies if they can't make as much off of selling product to the US.  The second big event was the appointment of Larry Kudlow as the President's Chief Economic Advisor.  Larry is well known for his stance on "King Dollar" or a strong dollar, which goes against this fund in particular, as it is unhedged and was chosen to take advantage of a strengthening Euro to Dollar.  Since all of these events haven't taken place, ...

Today I removed my initial investment I made into my position of Home Depot.  The markets have gotten more volatile and turbulent and I expect this to continue as we move ahead.  The stock was up about $40 over the course of the last quarter from start to it's 52-week high just a few days ago.  I've made over 225% on my investment, so over 2/3 of my position contiues to exist.  It simply felt prudent to raise some cash and protect my gains.  The company reports in February and at these prices, I feel a perfect quarter and guidance is needed.  I feel like the stock could pull back to the 200 day moving average, at which point I could put my investment back in for awhile, if I wish.  I do have belief that the company will continue to do well in these early stages of rising rates, but I wanted to prepare for worse times, even at the risk of "selling into the panic."  I already know I didn't get my best price possible today, but my discipline has ...

Today I decided trim a small portion off of my Citigroup position in order to build up some cash reserves as well as take advantage of the sudden and dramatic price moves we've recently seen.  This sale is a matter of both discipline and fear.  The stock has moved about 8% in the last week on news that a Tax Bill has been formed and approved in the senate.  The bill is exceptionally favorable for businesses and high income earniners and therefore you're seeing quite the surge in the banks.  At the same time, you're also seeing a rotation out of technology - particularly the semiconductors.  This move doesn't feel normal or natural - despite the fact that Citigroup is cheaper than its peers and I was feeling I was taking on too much risk of a downturn.  Combine that with the size of the position in the portfolio (approximately 15.6% of my portfolio), I felt it was time to protect some gains to rebalance my portfolio some and have some cash for the next d...

On Friday, I put in a purchase for about half of my maximum potential position in the stock of Apple at $152.25.  At the time of this writing it is 5.7% of my portfolio.  While I haven't had time to discuss my shopping list of new potential buys, the sale of my position of On Semiconductors left an opening for me to pick up a new tech name.  On my list I had Alphabet (Google) and Logitech as other potential picks.  It just so happens that AAPL's stock price came down into the area where I would start accumulating a position first.  Alphabet is just too expensive for me to work with - even in options, and while Logitech was close, I don't see the growth potential nearly as strong as it is with Apple today. The stock pulled back over $10 since the showcasing of their new phones the iPhone 8 and iPhone X.  Reception has been somewhat lukewarm and there has been a lot of rumors about bugs and delays in delivery.  The problem is that this is an ongoin...

Today, after making an accidental buy trade, I sold essentially what was 12% of my stake of the stock at a price of $8.13.  At the time of the sale, my remaining stake, after previous transactions, had amassed an increase of almost 100%.  I decided this was the right time to follow discipline and remove the remaining investment I had in the stock.  The stock price was over 5% higher than my price target (and closed even higher yet). and I could use that money for new investments.  I also am concerned that the stock's price is starting to get ahead of what it's capable of earning over the next twelve to eighteen months.  After the close of today's business, the holding continues to be a 5.3% holding in my portfolio. While I do want to caution the stock's run, I also want to note that I do see strength in the stock's future.  Their focus on automation, AI, and self-driving cars are key factors to the stock's run and its future potential right now. ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Today I sold 40% of my stake of On Semiconductor at a price of $15.90.  At the time of the sale, my position had gained over 87% in valuation and 42% of that increase has been since the first week in December.  While the stock did report spectacular results and a favorable guidance, I don't feel this strong of a move in just a couple months is likely to be sustainable.  As such, I needed to follow my own disciplines and take out some of my gains to protect me from down side risk.  I'm aware the stock technicals are still quite strong, indicating the stock could run more, but by taking out a large majority of what I've invested, I'm now...