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Weekly Portfolio Summary

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Another week of business is in the books.  Now that summer is unofficially over, people are getting back to work and volume should be on the rise in the markets yet again.  Markets were down slightly on the week and my portfolio was essentially flat.  

In terms of macro events, the issues with North Korea calmed down while Trump's announcement to end the DACA and put a few hundred thousand kids at risk of deportation took to the front page along with the President's surprising dealing with democratic leaders to extend the debt ceiling for 3 months coupled with an aid package for the impact of Hurricane Harvey in Houston.  

At this time, macro news like the ones mentioned and the likes of Hurricane Imra hitting Florida now impact the overall markets until early October when we start getting third quarter reports from companies.  So in short, there won't be a lot going on for now and that does leave room for the market to pull back some.
Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current …

Market-based Portfolio Assessment

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The major market indexes took a bit of a hit today and I thought I'd take a quick review of my portfolio in co ordinance with that action and how it may affect things.  First, I feel we are seeing two major news events impact the markets right now.  The primary focus is related to North Korea and the potential that they just tested a hydrogen bomb.  While the situation and potential scenarios are certainly alarming, I currently do not see them having an impact on my portfolio looking out twelve to eighteen months.  Times like this typically draw panic and it's better to be prepared to handle that panic than it is to join in the foray.  The second event is Hurricane Irma forming into a Category 5 storm in the Atlantic.  Current path projections have the storm most likely going right up through the Caribbean and through Florida and some of the southeast coast.  Category 5 hurricanes produces mass amounts of damage and has the potential to rival that of Harvey, which we're ju…

Weekly Portfolio Summary

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So it's been since like April since I've done one of these summaries.  I'm not going to take a lot of time talking about what's been going on here this time, because of that fact and let you get caught up on where I stand since the second quarter analysis I've provided over the last number of weeks.  That said, I do want to call out that I have taken on a new position over the last few months.  I have gotten into the iShares MCI Eurozone ETF.  I am preparing for what may be a corrective period where we start to see the rest of the world grow more through recovery from the Great Recession.  The US has out performed global markets and is valued higher than much of the rest of world.  While it's not accurate to say that the rest of the world should be evenly valued, it is fair to say we've grown so much more than usual that the rest of the world is going to have to catch up some.  This means we may start seeing slower growth in the US, maybe the S&P 500 on…

Earnings Analysis: On Semiconductor (ON)

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Back on August 7, On Semiconductor posted and had an earnings call for second quarter results.  Revenues came in at just under $1.34B.  Earnings, unfortunately, missed analyst estimates of $0.32, by six cents, coming in at $0.26.  Despite the mixed quarter, people seem relatively pleased with the results.  Perhaps that had something to do with the guide up in revenues and free cash flow.  On the latter, the increased their free cash flow guidance by 20%, raising it $100M for the year to a range of $600M to $650M.  On the revenues, they guided the third quarter up above what analysts expected, to a range of $1.34B to $1.39B.  The automotive group, in particular, was surprising as they guided a flat guidance on what is seasonally a down quarter - all despite the obvious automotive sales slowdown in the US.  I think the biggest tell of the future quarters was a specific line from management: 
"Customers continue  to remain  concerned  about potential supply tightness as demand contin…

Earnings Analysis: Home Depot (HD)

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Yesterday, Home Depot announced the results from its second quarter operations.  If you look back at my previous 2 quarterly reports (here and here), you'll notice how I used the screaming baseball video to describe the results of those quarters.  I figured I'll spare you from that again, but that ball is clearly still screaming - in fact it might be accelerating it's trip through space.  That's how strong the results from the quarter were.  They reported sales of $28.1B, which resulted in a beat of last years sales by 6.2% and beat estimates by $300M.  Earnings also topped expectations of $2.21, coming in at $2.25 - a 14.2% increase from the same quarter a year ago.  Same store sales also blew away expectations, which were expected to be in the high 4% to low 5% area, with results of 6.2% and the US had 6.6% same store comps.  So results were exceptionally impressive.

Next up, management pushed guidance up again for the second quarter in a row and this guide up was no …

Earnings Analysis: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

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Ionis Pharmaceuticals had a lot going on last week.  I'll do my best to summarize it all within the earnings analysis to simplify my work.  We'll start with the earnings announcement.  Ionis announced the results from their second quarter operations on Tuesday and provided what has been viewed as a set of mixed results.  Earnings were reported as a loss of nine cents, below analyst consensus of a four cent loss.  Revenues, however, beat expectations of $92.1M, coming in at $104.1M.  Headlines jumped out talking about missing marks and the stock dropped rather significantly - approximately 8% on that day alone.  

During the course of the quarter, SPINRAZA, a therapy for spinal muscular atrophy, went commercial and made an impressive first move.  Their partner, Biogen Idec, announced $204M in SPINRAZA sales, as the drug is clearly making inroads for intended patients.  When this was announced, earnings estimates for Ionis were dramatically altered.  Originally, estimates were at …

Earnings Analysis: Cedar Fair (FUN)

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Earlier this week, Cedar Fair announced their second quarter earnings results.  Revenues came in at $393M and earnings came in at $0.55, both were significant misses to expected targets of $405.88M and $1.04, respectively.  All this despite the fact that the company continues to report record quarterly revenues, expecting another year of record results, and increased attendance.  This seems to be a very mixed message.  Were these good results or bad?  Who was right, who was wrong, and what does this mean going forward?  I hope I can dig into this a little and create some sense from it.

First off, let's look at the story the earnings and revenues misses tells.  Earnings, which typically drives headlines was off a whopping 47%.  That's a huge miss.  However, revenues were off only a little over 3%.  That's a disappointing miss, but it's no 47%, so that's a plus.  Something happened between revenues and earnings, so what was it?  Are expenses out of control?  When look…