Investment "Logic"

On Monday, I closed out my position on Raytheon at a price of $169.50 as I mentioned looking to do in my earnings recap, here.  This close out may have been a bit premature, given the stock is another $6 higher than my sell point, but there was no way knowing that and I wanted to close out the position quickly to avoid any further losses, given the truly sad outlook the company provided for 2019.  In an effort to put money back to work that I have collected from my sales, I have purchased a 25% position in BP PLC, an oil stock yielding over 6% at the time of purchase.  I've been wanting to buy this stock for a little while now, but with earnings so close, I decided it best to wait, plus I wanted to get rid of something before I added more.  As a result, BP posted impressive numbers on Tuesday morning and the stock took off.  My purchase price was $42.75 and while I'd like to get the stock priced more at $40, I'm not sure that will be possible any more with...

On Thursday, Raytheon reported their fourth quarter 2018 earnings results.  While I am spending some time looking into this overall, this recap will not be as exhaustive as most of my efforts because I'm in progress of liquidating my holding.  This stock is currently less than 3% of my overall portfolio and is generally a non-factor - especially since I am looking to it for additional funds.  The results were somewhat mixed, as revenues missed expectations of $7.45B by $9M, coming in at $7.36B.  Earnings, on the other hand, were able to beat expectations of $2.89 by coming in at $2.93.  These results and the general explanations that go with them probably would've been given a pass, considering how hard the stock was sold off into the end of the year and what the stock was priced at a quarter ago.  However, the guidance provided really put a damper on the stock as they failed to significantly miss already subdued expectations. Worries coming into the ...

On Jan 7, I sold another third of my position in Raytheon at a price of $154.90.  As I said in my last trade , I've decided that while the company itself is strong, that I don't feel it is in a sector that has favorable outlooks at this time.  There is too much uncertainty around the FY20 budget with the new Democrat-led congress.  Given that prices have been on a rebounding jump, I felt the price increase warranted lightening up on my holding at increasing my cash position so it would be available to go after better options, should the market take a turn down again. Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Nothing on this site should be taken as advice, research, or an invitatio...

Yesterday I made the move to do some stock trades.  I bought back the shares I sold a long time ago to put my money back to work (instead of just playing with the house's) at $173.80 and I sold a third of my position of Raytheon at 153.38.  These moves were made after we got a very strong jobs report and Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell finally softened his stance on the economy, inflation, and the need to raise rates. Home Depot While I certainly didn't get this stock as low as I would've liked to, it was harder to pull the trigger then because I had less favorable scenarios to work with.  With less pressure of rising rates, ongoing positivity for job and wage growth that isn't growing wildly, and 10-year rates now back down around 2.67% we have an environment that can be helpful to home building, buying, and remodeling again.  With spring around the corner and a consumer that has proven to be strong through the holiday season, I expect to see further ...

Back on October 25, Raytheon announced strong operational results for their third quarter of 2018.  Sales were up 8.3% YoY and earnings were up 14.2%.  These results were stronger than wall street expected with revenues of $6.81B beating estimates of $6.69B and earnings of $2.25 killing expectations of $1.97 per share.  Backlogs also grew to new record levels of $41.6B, increasing by almost $5B YoY.  This resulted in a guidance update for 2018 bookings to increase by $1B.  Additionally, the company provided a preview to 2019 guidance.  Within this guidance, the book to bill ratio is expected to be over 1 (more orders than output), which is bullish.  They also guided sales growth of 6%-8%, operating margins to be in line with 2018 results, a tax rate of 17%-19%, and operating cash flow of $3.8B-$4.0B. Looking for negatives to note, operating margin results were down some and guided down some on the year mainly due to Missiles, which is seeing a nu...

After much contemplation, I decided it was time to move into a new position today and purchased half of my position in Raytheon at $188.50.  Raytheon is a defense company primarily known for the production of Patriot Missiles - a surface to air anti-missle defense system.  However, they also produce other items, play in cyber security and deep analytical analysis as well.  My theory is related to the fact that the US is looking to bolster their own military capabilities, to which Trump's declaration for a space force added to, but also the fact that the US is no longer spending as much of its money to protect its allies.  This means they need to increase their own purchases and Trump is using defense as something he's trying to push in all of his trade discussions.  These situations, I believe, spell out a strong runway towards ongoing profits in what is generally a robust global economy right now.  It is true that the Trade war pressures has the potent...