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John Deere and Co - Stock analysis

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It's time to get on this again.  Next week is going to be busy as there will be 3 earnings reports I need to watch and I haven't documented my prep for 2 of them.  Today I want to talk about John Deere and Company.  Those of you that have read my blatherings before will know that this stock is a link to my heritage and is an industry I understand quite well from a customer's point of view.  My thesis for this company is simple, but two-fold.  First, the population is growing, the farmers have less land to grow food on, and there are less farmers.  So there's a need for better equipment to more efficiently do the work and produce stronger crop outputs.  When it comes to equipment, John Deere is the best there is in the market.  The second is a replacement cycle of old equipment.  I have a very strong US focus with John Deere despite about half of their income coming from outside the US in many of the latest reports.  And that's because there's an invisible growt…

Pepsico - Stock Analysis

Another day, another analysis of one of my holdings.  Today we'll cover Pepsico.  I've held this stock for a couple years now and although there have been some tough times along the way, it's done pretty well for a "safety stock."  This was and still is one of my reasons for holding this stock in my portfolio.  I wanted something to help keep my portfolio stable and perhaps counter what happens in my more cyclical stocks on bad days.  I also picked Pepsico because despite being a relatively safe stock, it also showed signs of growth as it was expanding in foreign markets as well as taking on initiatives to make its products healthier - a common trend in most food stocks which are performing well.  At the time of purchase, it also had a very healthy dividend of 3.25% or more, which I have happily been collecting along the way with the positive price performance.  But how is Pepsi shaping up now?  Does it have room to run, or is it time to let go?

Let's start w…

On Semiconductor - Stock Analysis

Hello,

Today the theme continues as it has for my last two posts.  Today's stock I'm going to pour over is On Semiconductor.  I sold the majority of this position when I was up 15% and the stock was falling due to economic concerns and tightening demand.  Since then, I predicted that $6 was the lowest it was going to go - which I was wrong as it's been as low as $5.70.  But did I snatch a bunch more shares on this speculative investment?  Nope.  And that's why I'm doing this.  So I can increase my conviction of the stocks I hold, and start setting price points of interest that I hopefully will be able to force myself to follow more closely now.

Why On Semi?  Well, my thesis was based upon the fact that On Semiconductor's biggest focus is on chips used for power management.  That's a huge, long-term theme that I still believe will make itself present as economies actually recover, however won't be as strong a focus unless oil prices go higher.  Supplying…

Honeywell - Stock Analysis

Wow, 118 views so far on my last post regarding my analysis of Citi and not a single comment or +1.  I guess I had the right tags, but no real interest in some rookie's thoughts.  That's ok.  I'm just happy to have had all those hits!  Anyhow, now is the time for my second installment of Stock Analysis before we get into earnings.  Today I'm picking Honeywell.  When it comes to stocks that makes me glad to be playing this stock picking game and gaining experience, Honeywell is doing a lot for making me feel like I can do something right.  As I enter my 3rd year of picking stocks, I've held HON all three years and have a safe and healthy profit to boot.  I have made one mistake for sure on this stock and it was selling a portion of it when it was up 15% - if you want to call that a mistake.  Today, it's my largest holding even without the shares I've sold because it's appreciated so well.

Like I did last time, I'm going to start with my thesis.  I…

Citigroup - Stock analysis

Last night I reviewed the 2012 year and said I would start doing a deeper analysis of each of my holdings as a lesson learned. Today I've started my follow through of that work by analyzing my Citigroup position. Now it's time to share what I'e learned.

First thing I want to discuss is my thesis - the reasons I think the banking sector and this stock will do well (remember, if a stock is going to do well, the sector typically has to as well). I pick the banking sector for 2 reasons. The first is that they're starting to come back into favor with investors. This will become even more true as banks are allowed to release and increase the amounts if capital they can give to shareholders. When this happens, demand for a stock increases and so does the share prices. As dividends increase you'll see more retirement accounts picking up the stocks as well. The second reason is the turn around factor. The banks were buried with the US financial crisis. The companies perform…

2012 Year in review

Ok, so I haven't written a blog in half a year.  That's really poor on my part as it means I haven't been doing enough homework to relay my thoughts here and if I was actually getting any readers interested in what I had to blabber, I probably lost them.  That being said, I stated in my last blog that I expected the Dow to end the year at 13,000 and it closed just 104 points off of my prediction.  I'd love to say not bad for some novice rookie for a 6 month prediction, but I'm going to chalk it up to pure luck - if you think being off by 104 points in the Dow is a good thing, that is.  The only moves I made was to put in somewhere between half and  2/3 a position in Home Depot.  I will be the first to admit I am way late to that party, but at the same time I foresee growth ahead as well.  I'm going to keep that simple for now and do a more in-depth analysis at a later time for you.  The purpose of this entry is to assess myself for the last year.  How did I do?…