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Showing posts from February, 2017

Trade: On Semiconductor

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Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.
Today I sold 40% of my stake of On Semiconductor at a price of $15.90.  At the time of the sale, my position had gained over 87% in valuation and 42% of that increase has been since the first week in December.  While the stock did report spectacular results and a favorable guidance, I don't feel this strong of a move in just a couple months is likely to be sustainable.  As such, I needed to follow my own disciplines and take out some of my gains to protect me from down side risk.  I'm aware the stock technicals are still quite strong, indicating the stock could run more, but by taking out a large majority of what I've invested, I'm now close to playing …

Earnings Analysis: Cedar Fair (FUN)

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Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.
Last Wednesday, Cedar Fair announced fourth quarter and fiscal 2016 results.  Earnings appeared disastrous, with a loss of $0.12, which was fourteen cents below expectations.  On the flip side, net revenues came in at an astonishing $192M which handily beat expectations of $182.64M by 5%.  Guidance also continued with the narrative we've been hearing with the company expecting to surpass the $500M EBITDA threshold this year.  Year end EPS ended up at $3.14, which was significantly higher than I estimated at this time last year.  In the conference call, we heard a number of good results from management.  They saw an increase in attendance - despite weather, increase…

Earnings Analysis: Pepsico (PEP)

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Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.
On Wednesday, Pepsico announced fourth quarter and fiscal year 2016 financial results.  Numbers for the fourth quarter were basically within expectations for the top line and a bottom line beat of four cents compared to estimates ($19.5B revenues and $1.20 EPS delivered).  Results were strong as the company managed to essentially meet or beat all of their financial metrics.  It can be said that organic growth came a little below expectations at 3.7% vs. the 4% they targeted, but I'll give them a pass on it.  These growth numbers are off of strong numbers delivered in 2015, so I feel satisfied with the growth represented.  Foreign exchange rates continue to be a pro…

Trade: Ionis Pharmaceuticals

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Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.
Today I added and filled my position in Ionis Pharmaceuticals.  I have come to the point between timing and the company's technicals that this is the best timing I may be able to hit.  The company announced its fourth quarter earnings results for Tuesday February 21 and with the stock pulling back during the day, I took my best chance to get the stock below $47.  I would have preferred $43, but that just didn't seem possible.  I feel it is likely we'll hear more about phase 3 results before or during this earnings call, as this has become a regular pattern from the company.  Since most of these readouts will have impacts on drugs that will likely go commerc…

Earnings Analysis: On Semiconductor (ON)

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Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.
On Monday, On Semi reported fourth quarter and fiscal year 2016 results and what results they were!  Fourth quarter earnings came in at $0.29 and revenues were $1.26B, both of which were beats compared to analyst expectations of $0.23 and $1.21B respectively.  And then the company hit the trifecta and guided higher than expectations for next quarter with higher margins as well.  Cash flow was strong and while earnings were above expectations, expenses were at the middle of expectations, showcasing the higher margin performance compared to what was expected.  Essentially, this was a blowout quarter with great execution on the Fairchild acquisition, where they're alr…

Weekly Portfolio Summary

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The last week was rather uneventful for my portfolio while it managed to gain 0.6% compared to the S&P 500's 0.7%.  Right now, the markets seem to be paying attention to earnings, which is a wonderful things.  However, the punditry is focused on a much more unpredictable leadership, making it a little harder to pay attention to what is really moving the market.

The week ahead, however, is going to be crazy.  And since stocks appear to be paying attention to earnings announcements, there's potential for significant impacts to my portfolio based on what is said.  I'll do my best to keep up, but this is just when things get tough to manage for a home gamer.  

We kick the week off with earnings Monday morning, when On Semi shares their fourth quarter and 2016 results.  I've been on sell watch for this company due to its cyclical nature and the fact that the company is much higher than my price target now.  That said, there's potential for more earnings than I believe…

Weekly Portfolio Summary

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Another week of fourth quarter earnings passes as well as the continued focus out of Washington DC and yet the markets chug along.  The S&P 500 was up a tenth of a percent while my portfolio had its first week of out performance, primarily thanks to Friday.  The course of the week started with a fair amount of caution and doubt in the markets, only to be spurned by the end of the week by a series of three events.  

First, a Seattle federal judge deemed that an executive order that prevented entry of immigrants into our country has been put on hold.  While this isn't particularly important to the stock markets, it does provide some freedom of movement and gives companies something to feel more certain about (for the time being at least), regarding diversity and growth.

Second, the US non-farm payrolls report came out on Friday with a larger than expected increase in jobs.  To go along with this job growth, there was a muted growth in wages and inflation.  This indicates that the …