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Weekly Portfolio Summary

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It's been an interesting week as stocks and my portfolio both end up 0.8% higher than last week.  It was a week where I wasn't as able to watch the markets, so I am a little less aware of what's happened.  In general, bank and industrial stocks took a bit of a breather, healthcare seems to have recovered a little and tech was on the rise.  As expected, most of the hoopla was external the markets.  I will say bank impacts appear to be related more to the performance of the ten year treasuries more so than any other factor at this time.  This is likely because there are many that relate the performance of the banks to this rate.  I'm not so sure that's an accurate perception, especially when there's high demand for our treasury for people outside the US.  All in all, I consider what I've seen to be nothing more than a ho-hum week where the month and first quarter were coming to an end, so professionals were most likely paying attention to preparing for the n…

Weekly Portfolio Summary

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Major indices took a breather this week as the S&P 500 pulled back 1.4% while all eyes were fixated on Washington DC.  The focus here was on the House's attempt to pass their AHCA bill, which had very weak support nationally speaking.  Getting the Republican votes necessary to pass the bill and send it to the Senate for battle proved impossible and no push or negotiation from the President seemed to conjure any extra buy-in.  The markets appear to be trying to digest all of this news and extrapolate it into what they really care about - tax reform.  Worries that the AHCA battles would drag on certainly brought more caution in, however much of the speak is that with this current failure, the house will likely put this aside and move on to tax reform.  I believe there's a worry that if the President couldn't get the repeal and replace through successfully, what are the chances he'll have success on other endeavors.  Tax cuts are typically easier to pass, however it o…

Weekly Portfolio Summary

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So it's been a while since I've last done a weekly summary as I've been working to get caught up on fourth quarter reports.  Now I'm back at it and I've got a lot to catch up on.  It's been a wild few weeks with the various political events, the February jobs report being announced as much stronger than expected, and now the Fed has raised interest rates by another quarter percent.  The market, overall, has contined its climb slightly, based off of earnings, but has recently leveled off more, not really going anywhere.  Unfortunately, my portfolio can't say the same.  The majority of my stocks have been relatively flat for the last few weeks.  However, Ionis Pharmaceuticals has been gut wrenching.  First it shot up on strong earnings results, then came the lastest phase 3 drug test results and a subsequent downgrade by Goldman Sachs and the stock has since taken quite the beating.  

Despite the rate hike of 25 basis points by the Fed this week, 10 year rates…

Stock Analysis: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

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Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.
It's been a couple weeks since Ionis reported fourth quarter and fiscal year earnings results.  And the two weeks since has been a whirlwind of news to process.  As such, I'll take some time to talk about earnings, but also the events since that earnings call to see if I can place where everything really is at.  

Starting with the earnings report, as Ionis pre-announced, they were well ahead of guidance and expectations, primarily due to the FDA approval of SPINRAZA and the resulting milestone payment from Biogen.  Revenues came in at $160.3 million - over 50% above expectations of $99.3M.  The resulting earnings of $0.26 which is leaps and bounds above the $-0.…

Earnings Analysis: Home Depot (HD)

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Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.
On February 21 (yeah, I know I'm way late), Home Depot announced fourth quarter and fiscal year results for 2016.  Instead of using words to describe how the quarter went, I thought I'd just leave this:


That baseball is essentially sell side analysts and their estimates for the quarter and the year - completely spanked, thought that can also be said about the guidance provided by Home Depot's management.  To get more specific, Home Depot reported sales of $22.2B and earnings of $1.44.  This was against expectations of $21.73B and $1.33 respectively.  Not only this, but same store comps were up 5.8% and 6.3% in the US.  Ladies and gentlemen, I think it's …

Trade: On Semiconductor

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Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.
Today I sold 40% of my stake of On Semiconductor at a price of $15.90.  At the time of the sale, my position had gained over 87% in valuation and 42% of that increase has been since the first week in December.  While the stock did report spectacular results and a favorable guidance, I don't feel this strong of a move in just a couple months is likely to be sustainable.  As such, I needed to follow my own disciplines and take out some of my gains to protect me from down side risk.  I'm aware the stock technicals are still quite strong, indicating the stock could run more, but by taking out a large majority of what I've invested, I'm now close to playing …

Earnings Analysis: Cedar Fair (FUN)

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Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.
Last Wednesday, Cedar Fair announced fourth quarter and fiscal 2016 results.  Earnings appeared disastrous, with a loss of $0.12, which was fourteen cents below expectations.  On the flip side, net revenues came in at an astonishing $192M which handily beat expectations of $182.64M by 5%.  Guidance also continued with the narrative we've been hearing with the company expecting to surpass the $500M EBITDA threshold this year.  Year end EPS ended up at $3.14, which was significantly higher than I estimated at this time last year.  In the conference call, we heard a number of good results from management.  They saw an increase in attendance - despite weather, increase…

Earnings Analysis: Pepsico (PEP)

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Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.
On Wednesday, Pepsico announced fourth quarter and fiscal year 2016 financial results.  Numbers for the fourth quarter were basically within expectations for the top line and a bottom line beat of four cents compared to estimates ($19.5B revenues and $1.20 EPS delivered).  Results were strong as the company managed to essentially meet or beat all of their financial metrics.  It can be said that organic growth came a little below expectations at 3.7% vs. the 4% they targeted, but I'll give them a pass on it.  These growth numbers are off of strong numbers delivered in 2015, so I feel satisfied with the growth represented.  Foreign exchange rates continue to be a pro…