Investment "Logic"

Today, after making an accidental buy trade, I sold essentially what was 12% of my stake of the stock at a price of $8.13.  At the time of the sale, my remaining stake, after previous transactions, had amassed an increase of almost 100%.  I decided this was the right time to follow discipline and remove the remaining investment I had in the stock.  The stock price was over 5% higher than my price target (and closed even higher yet). and I could use that money for new investments.  I also am concerned that the stock's price is starting to get ahead of what it's capable of earning over the next twelve to eighteen months.  After the close of today's business, the holding continues to be a 5.3% holding in my portfolio. While I do want to caution the stock's run, I also want to note that I do see strength in the stock's future.  Their focus on automation, AI, and self-driving cars are key factors to the stock's run and its future potential right now. ...

Back on August 7, On Semiconductor posted and had an earnings call for second quarter results.  Revenues came in at just under $1.34B.  Earnings, unfortunately, missed analyst estimates of $0.32, by six cents, coming in at $0.26.  Despite the mixed quarter, people seem relatively pleased with the results.  Perhaps that had something to do with the guide up in revenues and free cash flow.  On the latter, the increased their free cash flow guidance by 20%, raising it $100M for the year to a range of $600M to $650M.  On the revenues, they guided the third quarter up above what analysts expected, to a range of $1.34B to $1.39B.  The automotive group, in particular, was surprising as they guided a flat guidance on what is seasonally a down quarter - all despite the obvious automotive sales slowdown in the US.  I think the biggest tell of the future quarters was a specific line from management:  "Customers continue  to remain  conce...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Today I sold 40% of my stake of On Semiconductor at a price of $15.90.  At the time of the sale, my position had gained over 87% in valuation and 42% of that increase has been since the first week in December.  While the stock did report spectacular results and a favorable guidance, I don't feel this strong of a move in just a couple months is likely to be sustainable.  As such, I needed to follow my own disciplines and take out some of my gains to protect me from down side risk.  I'm aware the stock technicals are still quite strong, indicating the stock could run more, but by taking out a large majority of what I've invested, I'm now...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On Monday, On Semi reported fourth quarter and fiscal year 2016 results and what results they were!  Fourth quarter earnings came in at $0.29 and revenues were $1.26B, both of which were beats compared to analyst expectations of $0.23 and $1.21B respectively.  And then the company hit the trifecta and guided higher than expectations for next quarter with higher margins as well.  Cash flow was strong and while earnings were above expectations, expenses were at the middle of expectations, showcasing the higher margin performance compared to what was expected.  Essentially, this was a blowout quarter with great execution on the Fairchild ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On Semi held their 2016 third quarter results back on November 6.  Results were earnings of $0.24 on $950.9M.  These results were mixed with expectations of earnings of $0.24 on revenue of $955.5M.  During the quarter, they completed their acquisition of Fairchild semiconductor and are seeing larger synergies develop faster than expected, while at the same time seeing increased complimentary products than originally expected.  It's also important to note that the miss on revenues is the $5M not realized due to divestitures the company made over the third quarter.   The quarter, as a whole, wasn't really a lot to write home about...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Last week, On Semiconductor reported second quarter results for 2016.  Non-GAAP earnings and revenues came in at $0.21 and $877.8M.  Both top and bottom lines beat their respective estimates of $0.19 and $854.55M.  In addition, they provided strong third quarter guidance of revenues in the $885M - $925M range.  This is an increased from the second quarter, though some of it is seasonal in nature.   While the quarter wasn't perfect, it was really good.  As such, I do want to note a couple concerns I saw.  First, is the Fairchild Semiconductor acquisition, which is behind schedule.  It's been said that they expect t...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Monday morning, On Semi posted earnings of $0.19 on revenues of $840M.  Earnings met expectations, but the revenues missed slightly.  The result was the stock getting pounded hard.  It was a little above $8 prior to the release and has subsequently hit a 52 week low of $6.97.  I certainly don't feel like this quarter's results justified the move down like this, but let's see what else may have had an impact. The quarter really seemed to have a mixed bag of results.  On the positive side, expenses were down and free cash flow was up.  On the down side, all products sales were down quarter over quarter - with Systems Solution...