Weekly Portfolio Summary

Missed last week's summary, but it was Memorial Day weekend, we had a shortened trading week, all of my stocks have announced their quarterly results, and frankly, not much was expected to go on.  And generally speaking, that's exactly what happened - nothing.  Up one day, right back down the next and things stayed close to flat, overall.  The strength of the US Dollar, and the apparent weakness of the US economy are the key factors that seem to move the market from day to day right now.  Add into that a Fed that appears destined to raise rates this year and people are extremely hesitant to buy or sell stocks with any serious conviction.  GDP numbers that were announced today were disappointing, the transports have been disappointing, and with the S&P 500 reasonably valued to slightly overvalued, it's hard to see forward movement.  I'm not calling a top at this time, just that there doesn't seem to be a lot of catalysts to go higher and there's plenty of worry out there about why we can go lower.

Next week Cedar Fair has their annual shareholder's meeting.  It might be good to listen to and see if they provide any information on how the second quarter is going so far.  On Semi, which has moved up due to M&A talk within the sector recently (Avago buying Broadcom, Altera in talks with Intel again), is at a conference Wednesday afternoon and Honeywell has a conference on Thursday - again, I don't see these as news breakers, but always has potential to keep an eye out for.  Finally, Thursday afternoon Akcea Therapeutics has a conference call which they are holding.  Akcea is a spin-off from ISIS Pharma, which ISIS essentially owns.  This call will likely have some value to listen to in regards to the fat and cholesterol control drugs in the ISIS pipeline that this new subsidiary will be responsible for.  Friday will likely be the biggest news day as the May jobs numbers will be announced.  This is likely to be a good news is bad news event - stating that if jobs are higher than expected, stocks will get hit in anticipation of a Fed rate hike.  

Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash. Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.


Ones:
Cedar Fair (FUN, 60.31) - The stock finally started to take off this week.  My best guess is that with falling interest rates, and the dollar and oil on the rise, people are flocking to high yield and domestic security, which this stock has both of.  Company could also be repurchasing shares to put a charge in things.  Over the long term, this is a stock that gives lots of money back to shareholders via dividends and buybacks (note, this is a MLP) and has growth.  I expect the stock to continue higher for awhile.  I estimate the company to make $2.94 in earnings this year and have a 2015 price target of $64.50.  Cedar Fair is 9.3% of my portfolio.

Twos:
Citigroup (C, 54.08) - I've said in the past that this may be a dead stock this year and for the most part, it's been just that as the stock is basically flat on the year.  As long as bond yields continue to stay low, people won't see a lot of potential for the banking sector.  Rates have did rise a little, though, and the stock has followed suit.  This could turn into a stock that rises on the second half of the year providing increases in interest rates continue to be expected as we close out this year and look into next year.  The company is now able to start delivering more cash back to investors in the form of buybacks and dividends as well.  This should help provide a continued floor on the stock.  I didn't see enough in the quarterly announcement to raise my tangible book value and price target of $59, and I see $50 has been holding as a strong floor for the stock.  Citi is 13.3% of my portfolio.

Home Depot (HD, 111.42) - The company delivered great results while the competition missed expectations.  Despite this, the stock has fallen since those earnings announcments.  So far it's held above the $110 technical floor that was in place.  Longer term we see signals that there is or will be more home buying and building going on in the country.  This is likely to keep the home retailers in good shape for the foreseeable future.  After the last earnings call, I needed to adjust my earnings and multiple targets. I am now expecting earnings of $5.30 and a multiple of 24.5.  My calendar 2015 price target is still lofty at $130. HD is 13.7% of my portfolio.

Honeywell (HON, 104.20) - This is a stock that seems to show the overall market sentiment towards the US Dollar and Treasury yields  If the dollar is down and yields are down, this stock rises and visa versa.  The quarterly report was strong and now the dollar is still weaker than when they reported, which should help revenues in the second quarter. The stock was range bound between $100 and $105.  It cracked $105 for a little while, but has not been able to maintain it.  That lower end of the range is managing to be a very reliable floor to buy off of, not withstanding any significant market news outside of the dredge we've been hearing all year so far.  Guidance now sits at $6.00 - 6.15. My estimate on their 2015 stays at $6.12 with a multiple of 18 due to how consistently this company delivers. This resulted in my 2015 target of $110. HON is 19.2% of my portfolio.

Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS, 67.32) - I believe the recent increase in rumors around M&A in the healthcare industry is moving the stock price up as is the decrease in interest rates a factor.  With nearly 40 therapies in the pipeline, this platform continues to show strong promise for the company as it goes forward.  It's a long-term speculation play and will have wild swings that should be traded around to be most efficient in profiting from it.  I'm still struggling to valuate the price target for a company growing fast, but with no earnings.  I wouldn't be surprised that the 52 week high for 2015 has already been set, but anything is possible in this space.  From a technical perspective, the stock price has surged past both the 20 and 50 day moving averages.  There's no evidence that either of these are playing a floor as of yet, but if it doesn't, the 200 DMA has been reliable.. Long term trends show room to continue running while medium term trends appear as though the stock is getting some rest.  This has long-term potential, I just need to find the right short-term opportunities to buy more stock.  Isis Pharmaceuticals is 4.1% of my portfolio.

On Semiconductor (ONNN, 13.26) - Recent news and rumors regarding M&A action has pushed this stock higher over the last 4 trading days.  There seems to be some consolidation going on, particularly in the semiconductors group, that is stirring interest and value in the stocks.  The company is making a real move in the auto and industrial spaces with their imaging sensors solutions in particular and I believe with the push to more automated machines coming on strong, the company has reason to feel upbeat.  Company buybacks are proving to help put a floor into the stock, which I currently estimate to be around $12.  I still estimate $0.86 earnings and raised the multiple to 15 (it might actually be the earnings side that should be increased, but here's how I'm working it for now).  This provides a price target of around $13.  We've hovered near and now have passed that point, so my eyes are firmly on the stock.  There is certainly value in the stock and the company, thought I'm not sure if anyone is likely to buy it, or they buy someone else right now.  This is a time to watch the stock's action and if it jumps strong and quick, it's likely to get too hot and there will be a need to take gains.  There's long-term potential in the stock, however, tech moves erratically.  It's completely possible to walk away early only to come back for more a few months later after an over done pullback.  On Semiconductor is 12.2% of my portfolio.

Pepsico (PEP, 96.43) - Pepsico has been performing similarly to Honeywell, though it's not near its 52 week highs yet.  The direction of the US Dollar continues to dictate how the stock will perform.  The dividend has been raised for the 53rd year, which helps keep the stock attractive against bond yields.  Based on the news from the last earnings call, I adjusted my guidance and targets to be more cautious.  The earnings estimate was lowered to $4.44 and I provide a 22 multiple for a price target of $98.  As I said, those estimates might be too low now, given the lower dollar value.  While the stock seems to be taking a step outside its recent range, there's not enough evidence to see if we're going much higher, or if the stock is just going to retreat back towards the $94 floor its been holding. PEP is 11.9% of my portfolio.