Weekly Portfolio Summary

Well, I've been on a bit of a siesta for the weekly summaries - right in the middle of earnings too!  I've been slower than I wish, but I've at least been keeping up on earnings releases and recapping those.  Now that the busy planting season is drawing to a close, I have the time to refocus here.

Impeccable as my timing seems to be, there's not much going on in the week ahead.  There will be some investor conferences for Honeywell, Isis, and On Semi, but these are likely to be non-events.  The April jobs number apparently came in at a spot that was considered acceptable to show we're not losing strength in the economy, however, not growing so fast that everyone runs in fear of inflation.  Don't get me wrong, I expect a parade of people calling for June rate hikes again, I just don't know how effective they'll be.  The market continues its generally sideways moves on an index level.  Underneath, there are rotations based upon interest rate levels, the strength of the US dollar, and oil prices (which I feel are a hot bed of speculation right now more than true demand).  These gyrations keep everything churning as we see shifts move back and forth.  I really don't think that's going to change much at this time.  If you're a trader, hopefully you're good enough to move with those rotations.  I am not someone with that much skill or free time.  My focus is on setting solid prices I wish to buy or sell stocks at, and I will pull the trigger if I get it.  Otherwise I resign myself to the gyrations as long as I'm at least generally in line with the S&P 500.  It's the kind of race where we need to play the role of the tortoise - at least for now.

Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash. Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.


Ones:
Cedar Fair (FUN, 57.19) - First quarter results weren't spectacular, however, the quarter only accounts for 5% of total revenues on the year, so it can't really be judged.  While earnings missed, revenues did beat expectations as the company invests to keep and gain customers.  The stock has been hit since the announcement while maintaining it's floor which was around my purchase price, partially buoyed by a 5.25% yield.  I would buy more at or rather below those prices, but don't be in a rush.  We could see the stock sitting here or diving for a little while, similar to what happened last year, but likely not near as drastic.  The company has strong cash flow, a strong balance sheet for the industry, and a great yield.  With gas prices down, people are more willing to spend when at the parks as well.  Great long term stock that can help a portfolio in good and bad economic times.  I need to do more research regarding EBITDA, though, as it's the key metric to compare it to its peers.  I estimate the company to make $2.94 in earnings this year and have a 2015 price target of $64.50.  Cedar Fair is 9% of my portfolio.

Twos:
Citigroup (C, 54.02) - I've said in the past that this may be a dead stock this year and for the most part, it's been just that as the stock is basically flat on the year.  As long as bond yields continue to stay low, people won't see a lot of potential for the banking sector.  That being said, they have risen a bit since I last wrote.  The company had one of the best CCAR results this year and it seems CEO Michael Corbat is positioning the company well for future gains.  I didn't see enough in the quarterly announcement to raise my tangible book value and price target of $59, and I see $50 has been holding as a strong floor for the stock.  Citi is 13.6% of my portfolio.

Home Depot (HD, 112.47) - Since my last summary went out, Home Depot has suffered a bit of a beating.  Much of this is tied to people's assumptions on the economic and consumer strength in the US couples with the fact that gas prices and interest rates for home mortgages have been on the rise.  I expect this will only coil the spring all that much more when earnings are announced later this month.  I still estimate fiscal year 2016 earnings of $5.20 and give the company a multiple of 30 as I expect us to see the multiple expand to meet the consistent growth we've been seeing.  My calendar 2015 price target is lofty at $130. HD is 14.1% of my portfolio.

Honeywell (HON, 102.12) - Another stock that was beaten down some with the short-term rotations in the market due to fears of the sky falling. Despite foreign currency hurting the company's revenues results some, earnings came in strong and the lower end of guidance has already been raised.  Now the dollar has been weakening, which should help revenues in the second quarter. The stock has been range bound between $100 and $105.  That lower end is managing to be a very reliable floor to buy off of, not withstanding any significant market news outside of the dredge we've been hearing all year so far.  Guidance now sits at $6.00 - 6.15. My estimate on their 2015 stays at $6.12 with a multiple of 18 due to how consistently this company delivers. This resulted in my 2015 target of $110. HON is 19.2% of my portfolio.

Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS, 61.94) - The company announced earnings back on Tuesday, but I haven't had a chance to go over the call yet.  I do know they beat on top and bottom lines and their recent announcement of Bayer buying the rights to their anti-coagulant pipe is pretty strong news.  Without listening to the call, I can't say much more.  I'll work to get the analysis out for that this week.  I have no price target at this time.  Isis is 3.9% of my portfolio.

On Semiconductor (ONNN, 12.30) - Contrary to the belief of many short sellers, On announced a strong first quarter last week with solid guidance looking into the second quarter.  The company is making a real move in the auto and industrial spaces with their imaging sensors solutions in particular and I believe with the push to more automated machines coming on strong, the company has reason to feel upbeat.  Company buybacks are proving to help put a floor into the stock, which I currently estimate to be around $12.  I do feel like the stock will be range bound for a bit until something puts a charge into the overall market.  I still estimate $0.86 earnings and raised the multiple to 15 (it might actually be the earnings side that should be increased, but here's how I'm working it for now).  This provides a price target of around $13.  We get near that, and I'll watch the stock closely and sell at least my trade position if I don't see it having the strength to break through.  This could be a good stock to sell soon, and then pick up in a few months.  On Semiconductor is 11.6% of my portfolio.

Pepsico (PEP, 96.55) - Pepsico's first quarter announcements provided a lot of new details to consider.  Currency translation was a larger impact than figured, though the US Dollar's strength is now weakening, and now gas prices have risen some, making people feel that expenses will go higher.  I see it more along the lines that these may be short term problesm, but Pepsi has been a solid operator that will navigate this mess very well.  The dividend has been raised for the 53rd year, which helps keep the stock attractive against bond yields.  Based on the news, I adjusted my guidance and targets to be more cautious.  The earnings estimate was lowered to $4.44 and I provide a 22 multiple for a price target of $98.  At the same time the stock has held extremely strongly at about $94.  We may be range bound for a bit until the overall picture gets clearer to stop the churning and rotations we're seeing in the market.. PEP is 12.1% of my portfolio.