Investment "Logic"

Missed last week's summary, but it was Memorial Day weekend, we had a shortened trading week, all of my stocks have announced their quarterly results, and frankly, not much was expected to go on.  And generally speaking, that's exactly what happened - nothing.  Up one day, right back down the next and things stayed close to flat, overall.  The strength of the US Dollar, and the apparent weakness of the US economy are the key factors that seem to move the market from day to day right now.  Add into that a Fed that appears destined to raise rates this year and people are extremely hesitant to buy or sell stocks with any serious conviction.  GDP numbers that were announced today were disappointing, the transports have been disappointing, and with the S&P 500 reasonably valued to slightly overvalued, it's hard to see forward movement.  I'm not calling a top at this time, just that there doesn't seem to be a lot of catalysts to go higher and there's plen...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Last week, Home Depot announced their fiscal first quarter results.  First Quarter Sales came in at $20.9B and earnings of $1.21 ($1.16 excluding items) - both beat estimates of $20.82B and $1.15 respectively.  Additionally, same store sales came increased 6.1% with US stores increasing 7.1%.  Essentially, this was yet another solid beat by the company who credited a 30% increase in online sales as a strong reason for such strong growth in the quarter.   In addition to the solid results, the company has already raised 2015 guidance rather significantly from their original range of $5.11 - $5.17 to $5.24 - $5.27 now.  This change...

This was a strong week for my portfolio, while the market was pretty flat overall.  Underneath that flat market was a swirl of action as we've seen signs of various shifts in stock preference which appear correlated to the fact that the US Dollar has been weakening, oil is strengthening, and 10 year Treasuries are stabilizing.  The weakening dollar has helped stocks like Honeywell and Pepsico gain some strength because money they're making overseas is going to start translating into more revenues here in the US than they did a quarter ago.  While most retailers are getting hit, the home improvement area seems to be the only segment of retail still faring well.  I'm guessing this is due to more interest in long-term investment over splurging with money while rates are relatively stable and before they go on the rise.  Finally, biotech and tech (at least mine) appear to be bipolar for now, taking strong swings in both directions while not necessarily going any...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Last week, Isis Pharmaceuticals announced 2015 first quarter earnings results.  Key factors included a pro-forma operating income of $4M compared to a loss of $22.6M a year ago.  On a GAAP basis, this translated into a loss of fourteen cents per share on revenues of $62.6M.  Expectations were -0.21 EPS and $52.74M in Revenues.  This was a nice beat of expectations, with higher than expected income from increased milestone payments.  Additionally, they were able to maintain a strong cash position of %695.1M, which is down only $33.7M from the previous quarter. In addition to the strong earnings results, the company followed up on...

Well, I've been on a bit of a siesta for the weekly summaries - right in the middle of earnings too!  I've been slower than I wish, but I've at least been keeping up on earnings releases and recapping those.  Now that the busy planting season is drawing to a close, I have the time to refocus here. Impeccable as my timing seems to be, there's not much going on in the week ahead.  There will be some investor conferences for Honeywell, Isis, and On Semi, but these are likely to be non-events.  The April jobs number apparently came in at a spot that was considered acceptable to show we're not losing strength in the economy, however, not growing so fast that everyone runs in fear of inflation.  Don't get me wrong, I expect a parade of people calling for June rate hikes again, I just don't know how effective they'll be.  The market continues its generally sideways moves on an index level.  Underneath, there are rotations based upon interest rate l...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On Monday, On Semiconductor announced 2015 first quarter results.  Results were rather positive, with earnings beating estimates by two cents coming in at $0.20 on higher than expected revenues of $870.8M (I am pretty certain estimates were about $862M).  In addition, guidance was positive and comments made in the conference call stated they expect this year to be "better than normal." In all, it isn't easy to poke holes in this quarter's results.  Inventory reserves were up by 2 days, but that is in anticipation of a strong second quarter.  Currency translation was larger than anticipated by ($8M compared to their estimate of $6M), ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Last week Cedar Fair announced their first quarter financial results.  Earnings missed expectations, coming in at $-1.50 compared to the estimates of $-1.23.  Meanwhile, revenues beat with results of $47M compared to expectations of $42M.  While no real annual guidance was provided, management did say things are still on track to meet their goals on a long-term basis.  In all, this is a meaningless quarter for the company, because it only produces at most 5% of the company's full year revenues due to the fact that the majority of their parks are closed over this time of year.  Quarters 2 and 3 will be key as this is the peak seaso...