Investment "Logic"

After watching the stock drop to the low 30s and start jumping back up with what appears to be a turn in the overall market, I have decided to purchase one ninth of a position of Canopy at a price of $36.50.  This is a very small position to take advantage of prices significanctly below my cost basis while also leaving me room for the stock to go back down further - given that I am making this purchase at a time the stock is up over 8% on the day.  I continue to belive that Canopy is the best - potentially the only direct pot play and I play it as a speculation for long-term gains as the company continues to gain footing and take market share of failed companies in countries where cannabis is legal as well as being a leader into the next countries that legalize it.  Additionally, I am not convinced the stock is done going down.  I still believe prices in the 20s are possible, and as such this is why I'm taking a more concerted effort to buy smaller positions....

On October 19, Honeywell announced their third quarter earnings results and they were fantastic.  Earnings came in at $2.03, beating out the $1.99 estimates while revenues came in at $10.76B which just edged expectations of $10.75B.  Organic sales came in at 7% which was the very high end of the anticipated range while margin expansion exceeded their range by 20 basis points on a 50 basis point high end.  On top of that, the company exceeded the guided amount of capital returned to shareholders via buybacks by $1.5B on a $3B guidance.  Hopefully, the company was buying back shares towards the end of the quarter when the stock was getting hit its hardest, but if it was, we certainly haven't seen it in the stock prices since - outside of the fact that they may not be in a window in which they can buy back shares now, resulting in less of a floor of protection for the stock.   All segments performed well for the company with SPS and Aero leading the way ...

Yesterday, I received a small number of shares of Honeywell spinoff Rezidio as a part of the spin-off process.  I have decided to sell the entire position at a price of $25.51.  While I expect the company to perform well long-term, in the short-term this is a declining sector given the slowdown we've seen in home building and company investments.  I anticipate the company to have to deal with this pressure over the next several quarters as a result and do not expect the stock to perform well.  One thing that I do see as an interesting opportunity for this company is what happens with the United Technologies/Rockwell Collins merger.  Should China decide to let this deal happen, United Technologies will likely split itself into 3 companies which will also include a home/HVAC space that I can see merging or being bought by Rezidio in the future.  That said, I don't think the homework effort is worth the small number of shares I will have in the company as ...

On October 12, Citigroup announced third quarter 2018 earnings results and they were rather strong.  Earnings came in at $1.73, above estimates of $1.69.  Revenues came in at $18.38B, which was slightly below consensus for $18.45.  75 million common shares were repurchased as a part of the $6.4B in returned capital to shareholders over the quarter.  The Tangible Book Value also increased to $61.91.   Loan growth was up 3% from the same quarter a year ago and deposits were up 4%.  Revenues from investing were also up nicely as the company took advantage of the volatile markets we've been experiencing since February.  The fact that about half of the company's business comes from overseas also seemed to be a benefit, as there was less impact to their operations compared its peers who are mostly US based.  Despite the fact that revenues missed expectations, it's not as bad as it may seem, given there was a sale of a Mexican Asset Management...

On October 19 I filled another third of my expected position of Canopy Growth Company at $48.50.  At the time I placed the order, the stock was showing a strong floor in the $45 - $48 range and was really struggling to get below $48.  Given the stock had recently run up to the mid-50s and Canada's prohibition ended two days earlier.  I felt the amount the stock pulled back seemed reasonable on the sell the news situation and dove in.  We now know that choice was rather early, given the stock is now in the 38s after having hit as low as the 36s.  Given the current market conditions and overall chart health, I'll be sitting back for a bit to see when/where this stock stabilizes before I think about filling my position.  $35 is certainly a price area of interest, but I've also read that the stock could get down into the 20s.  It's important to remember that a huge portion of this company's value is in cash from investment from Constellation Brands....

Yesterday I sold approximately one third of my position in Cedar Fair (FUN) at a price of $55.25.  This price represented a net loss of around 11.1% (tax harvested).  As I stated in my Disney initation here , I wasn't pleased with the results I've been seeing from the amusement park industry and noticed there seems to be something larger than just weather driving the lower than expected results (not to mention I've taken way too long to react to what I was seeing).  As such, I'm shifting away from Cedar Fair in favor of Disney for a more broadly diversified holding that doesn't rely on just amusement parks, but entertainment more broadly.  Third quarter results are coming up towards the end of the month and should they provide solid results, I may get a price pop I can take advantage of and maybe even get a small profit from.  In the meantime, I wanted to sell this position to pay for the Disney shares I grabbed.  I am waiting for my next DIS purch...

On Thursday, I purchased approximately one third of a full position in Walt Disney Corporation (DIS), otherwise known as Disney.  This expands my portfolio into the entertainment space, given I currently hold shares of Cedar Fair (FUN).  The purpose of this purchase is to begin a transition away from Cedar Fair.  The company and the stock has not been performing up to expectations as of late.  Despite the strong dividend of over 5%, the company lost all of the capital gains I had in it and then some.  This was poor management on my part.  Regardless of what I did or didn't do right with Cedar Fair, I still have faith in the Entertainment industry.  However, I felt it would be more appropriate to diversify myself outside of just amusement parks.  I feel the timing of this switch is ideal too.  Besides the theme parks which Disney has and are doing well, they have TV via ABC channels and ESPN, which is starting to turn itself around with it...

On October 2, Pepsico announced their third quarter earnings results while saying goodbye to their CEO.  This was the last day and last earnings call to be led by Indra Nooyi, a venerable champion in the business with her strong leadership pointed towards a strong future for the company by making sure they stayed in front of and fully involved in snack and beverage trends.  I'll get more into the company's future as I close this up, though.  As for the earnings results themselves, the company generated non-GAAP earnings of $1.59 which beat consensus by two cents and delivered organic revenue growth of 4.9%.  Core constant currency growth was 9%.  This included a 2% impact from currency conversion, given the recent strength of the US Dollar.  They also guided up on their expectation for organic growth from less than 3% to at least 3%, a sign of confidence that their final quarter looks bright.   While profit was down for the North American Be...