Investment "Logic"

The market turned out to have a positive week overall, as did my portfolio, though I under performed the S&P 500 yet again.  The moves, while positive, aren't exactly something that is causing any euphoria with me at this point.  We were so over sold, as a market, that this was bound to happen.  I'd even go so far as to say that the fact that the market has been going up slightly via violent upward and downward swings gives me more reason to be cautious of this move as a sign of more downward trends to come, rather than upwards.  Let's dig into this a little more.  There are a couple people that focus on very different styles of technical analysis.  I do this because I'm an amateur and I dive more into fundamentals than technicals when researching.  I've found them to be respectfully accurate (no one is accurate all the time, after all) and recently have been more right than wrong.  Oddly enough,  both  of them and their differe...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Honeywell announced their fourth quarter and full year earnings estimates for 2015.  Earnings of $1.58 on sales of $9.98B was perfectly in line with expectations.  The company ended the year earning $6.10 and returned $10B in cash to shareholders through dividends, share buybacks, and mostly (not to mention most importantly) mergers and acquisitions. Free cash flow also increased by 10%, which was more than the management team expected.  Margins also increased by over 2% on the year, which is rather impressive at this point.  You'd have to believe we're reaching a point where those margin gains are reaching the most optimum point, but ...

Well, for the first time in the new year, I can say that the week wasn't a complete disaster, though it sure felt that way early on.  Back on Wednesday, the markets were down over 3% only to suddenly turn around and go up.  The market has been getting called oversold for some time and when oil shifted to a new forward month in the futures, it lifted dramatically, carrying the market with it.  Does it feel natural or normal?  Is the market acting like it should, fundamentally?  Nope, not at all, but that's been par for the course for some time now.  The big question now is whether this is just an oversold bounce or if the market has actually bottomed out and is feeling better.  As of Friday's close, oil was back above $32 - well above a commonly desired $30 mark.  The Chinese stock market is showing signs of flattening around the 2800 mark and stabilizing as well.  However, this is likely due to government propping of the market.  Ca...

It has been another rough week for my portfolio as it continued to under perform the S&P 500, which is having it's worst start to any year ever.  Sadly, there isn't really much solace in the fact that you're doing even worse than that.  My portfolio was down 5.4%, compared to the 2.2% for the S&P 500.  My biggest pain points were Ionis, Citigroup, and Cedar Fair (believe it or not).  Ionis represents people taking their winnings and avoiding speculative-type stocks in this brutal kind of market.  It can be painful to take this hit, but I've been anticipating it and waiting for a chance to add to my position.  Citigroup is another story.  I filled my position in it last week, only to watch the stock plummet - even after its earnings beat of expectation, it was hammered mercilessly compared to its brethren.  Finally, Cedar Fair is another position I'm trying to fill, so the downside isn't bad, though it is a little surprising. De...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On Friday, Citigroup announced fourth quarter and fiscal year 2015 earnings results.  Earnings beat on both top and bottom lines,  with earning of $1.06 on revenues of $18.45B.  Estimates were $1.05 and $17.87 respectively.  Guidance was basically similar results in 2016 as we saw in 2015 while the company completes it's Costco credit card agreement and aligning itself to where it believes the strengths in the industry.  Tangible book value at the end of the quarter was $60.60, a 6.6% increase over its price at the end of 2015.  This was the fourth consecutive quarter the company beat expectations and the sixth consecutive qu...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Today I decided to make a move that market conditions have been giving me and added another small position to my stake in Cedar Fair.  The company is sporting a 6.5% yield and the are likely to only benefit from how cheap gasoline has gotten.  As such, I continue to see growth prospects in the company, and the stock is under valued.  That doesn't matter right now with current market sentiment, but I'm buying on a longer time horizon.  My original plan was to buy a larger chunk and fill my position, but given the market, I decided to leave some powder for better opportunities. As for the trade itself, it was both good and bad.  T...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. I wanted to take a few minutes to provide an update after today's trading market results for Ionis Pharmaceuticals, which fell a whopping 11.76%, though that was well off it's lows of over 15% down.  I spent free time today trying to understand what was going on.  No news was distributed, but all of Biotech was taking a hit in the 2% - 5% range, with the IBB pushing down near it's August 24 lows.  It wasn't until after the close that news releases started to come out and help shed light on what else was pushing things down.  As a part of their discussion at the JP Morgan healthcare conference, Ionis provided an update on their 2015 out...

Happ...  Ummm New Year!!!  Wait, that's not good either.  How about "Here's your ass, I think you lost it on Wall Street back there?"  Yep, that's kind of how the week went.  Not that I'm totally surprised.  I did expect the year to start on a somber note, after all.  However, few were ready for this kind of response and I can't say I was one of them.  Oh well, I did enter the week with a decent cash position, so that's somewhat helpful.   Some of that cash position was put to work on Friday, as Citigroup fell to prices I wasn't sure I'd see anymore, and then kept falling.  All much to my displeasure.  It's hard to believe there's a bank stock, well capitalized and protected from the financial burdens of the Great Recession, now trading at lows not seen since early 2014, much less back when we were wondering if the Fed would raise rates.  It's also trading about 30% below tangible book value, which is why I felt I had to...