Weekly Portfolio Summary



Notes:
Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.

Ones:
Citigroup (C, 47.57) - First quarter earnings were a huge surprise to just about everyone.  In the end, it's looking like Citigroup will post one of the best quarters out of all of the banks.  That will help put a floor into the stock at the $47 range, however, it doesn't have a lot of growth potential in the near-term either.  The fact that the company isn't going to return more cash to shareholders this year will keep a lot of buyers at bay, I think.  It will also keep the stock at a cheap price compare to it's book value.  Management now has a very serious job to show they can fix the problems that exist and turn this into a positive story.  Additionally, people have been flooding to the treasuries - driving interest rates down - recently, which is both counter intuitive to growth of the economy and negative to future earnings growth potential.  The company has oodles of cash, but it won't be until the processes are fixed that we'll really see this thing start to move.  I'm thinking this is a better story towards the end of the year.  Interest rates will have to start rising to give earnings a boost as well.  Under current circumstances, I give C a $51 target.  Citi is 9.5% of my portfolio.

On Semiconductor (ONNN, 8.69) - ONNN beat on Q1 earnings, but missed on revenues.  Forward looking guidance seemed positive and the second quarter revenue estimates are near the lower end of guidance right now.  The stock got crushed, and I believe, unjustly so.  I think this stock is currently providing room for a 10-15% pop while downside is likely in the 5% range.  The semiconductor index, as shown by the SOX, is showing a breakout to new highs, but On has been getting left behind.  This is a bit concerning.  This stock has been difficult and should I decide to raise cash, this will likely be one of the first places I go to get it, despite my feeling that this stock is going higher.  My price target remains at 11.50.  On Semiconductor is 5.8% of my portfolio.

Twos:
Broadwind Energy (BWEN, 11.14) - The stock has pulled back somewhat significantly over the last few weeks on lower than normal volume.  Since its lowest point in mid-May, the stock has started a slow ascension again.  No other real news has been released.  The pullback has made me a little nervous and as such, I have not bough more, despite being below my previous $11.50 buying point.  I also should raise cash to pay for anything more I'd buy.  The company shows signs of accelerated growth in earnings, revenue, and profit margins right now, but has risks residing in its gearing segment's turn-around abilities as well as the pending PTC legislation that is expected to be voted on after November elections.  This stock should be good as long as the turn-around and growth stories stay intact.  I'm a $15 target price on it right now.  BWEN is 4.25% of my portfolio

Deere & Company (DE, 91.17) - Deere continues to follow it's sometimes frustrating playbook.  They announced yet again another strong quarterly result, but were very downbeat on their guidance.  It is clear that growth in sales is slowing as grain prices have pulled back, but they've always said that the growth we had seen wasn't sustainable either.  The stock is still significantly undervalued compared to its industry and some of its key peers (CAT for example).  There is still more upside potential, with my price target of  $100 or more if priced fairly with industry/peers.  The ceiling to break through remains to be $95 and that has been very difficult.  The post-earnings call sell-off appears to have subsided and the stock is starting to track higher again.  This is an low value industrial stock - which should fare well in a growing economy.  DE is 12.2% of my portfolio.

Encana Corporation (ECA, 23.31) - Encana reported a beat on earnings and revenues for the fourth quarter.  Additionally a combination of both weather and the Crimean events have lifted both natural gas prices as well as natural gas stocks.  These prices approached $5 over the quarter and have spent much of its time in the mid-$4 range.  This has provided an opportunity for the company to hedge much of 2014's supplies at levels unseen in the last few years and it is appearing that the prices are likely to stay above $4 with the tighter supplies in the market (compared to the $3.75 prices they guided at).  I feel I've seen the needed sustainability in gas prices and am waiting to see the same results from management to maintain my conviction.  They continue to focus on the Nat Gas liquids, which provide good returns while Nat gas prices work to increase and the glut is decreased.  Encana should be having a strong quarter, given the higher than expected prices and this should translate into a stronger year, providing they locked much of the year's production prices in.  If so, it's reasonable to believe that they can post earnings of $1.25 this year. That would be a 13% increase in earnings from 2013.  The company is trading around 18 times those forward earnings estimates.  With a PEG ratio of 1.3 and potential that these earnings increases are accelerating right now, I think things are reasonably priced..  The earnings release in May is likely going to be important for this stock.  Analyst average is currently at $.41 earnings for the first quarter.  That's a 29% year over year increase and may be tough to beat, but the company could still be on pace for $1.25 earnings if it doesn't reach the expectations.  Price target is set at $25.  ECA is 12.8% of my portfolio.

Home Depot (HD, 80.23) - This company still has long term prospects.  It's earnings have been accelerating and the economy continues to show signs of strength. It has pulled back to 16 times it's guided 2014 earnings (I'm actually expecting them to earn $4.50 instead of the 4.32 they've guided).  Great management team that knows how to take the competition on.. This stock has pulled back recently near the price it was at when it announced the quarter.  At the same time, interest rates have been falling. Target price is $86.  HD is 10.7% of my portfolio.

Honeywell (HON, 93.15) - Another solid quarter posted by this Industrial conglomerate.  Margins continue to improve, they've raised the lower end of their guidance and almost every division appears to be properly aligned to the current economic state of the world.  The analyst community could be starting to get ahead of the company, though, as their fiscal year earnings estimates are right at the top of the guidance range.  If anything goes wrong, this stock could get hit pretty hard and that would be your best buying opportunity.  The stock trades near 17 times earnings which P/E is at about 17 times earnings which is below its peers while its growth rate appears to be ahead of their peers.  This, too, should provide a little protection..  My target is $100.  HON is 18.6% of my portfolio.

NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP, 31.13) - This stock really popped on Friday due to rumors of a UK company considering an all-cash buyout of NPSP for about $40 per share.  The stock spiked up, but then slowly pulled back during the day.  I think rumors like these may help keep the stock above $30, but it will continue to be volatile as these rumors ebb and flow.  Since the article in the Financial Times said this was very much in the infancy stages, it's very possible that this can fall apart into nothing.  Keep an eye on the 40 and 20-week simple moving averages.  If the 20 crosses over the 40, it's time to take your gains and run.  $40 has been and continues to be my price target, but I am not convinced we'll see that price in 2014.  Maybe 2015 instead.  NPSP is 12.9% of my portfolio.

Pepsico (PEP, 88.33) -  Pepsi has provided an earning announcement that might be enough to at least subdue the activist pressure on the company.  The company beat on both top and bottom line numbers and showed signs that they have started to get some control in the weakening beverages section.  I consider this stock to be something worth buying if it pulls back 5-10%.  It has growth prospects, is returning a lot of cash to shareholders, and the yield on the treasury will make a stock like this a nice dividend alternative for a little while yet.  P/E ratios are a little rich, but in line with the industry despite what appears to be improving growth  PEP is 8.8% of my portfolio and my price target is raised to $90.