Weekly Portfolio Summary

It' been a whirlwind kind of week.  Dow and S&P 500 hitting new highs before pulling back, Nasdaq going on a wild roller coaster ride that's enough to make anyone upchuck.  Anything that's been a high flyer has been taken to the woodshed.  Other stocks, especially those that have low multiples seem to be faring better.  And then the week ended with a rather ho-hum employment number.  Good enough to be better than last month, but not so good that interest rates start rising or people feel like the US economy is really starting to go somewhere.  There are a few things to watch next week as earnings reports will start to kick off.  Alcoa always gives a nice indication where the industrial stocks might head and they report on Tuesday.  Friday we start getting earnings reports on banks with Wells Fargo and JP Morgan.  If both companies give lower than expected performance - or worse guidance - Citigroup might get hammered.  Citi reports in 10 days, so how the stock handles negative news can be a huge indicator for the stock going forward.  NPS Pharma also has a conference they present at next week.  Perhaps they can provide some information that will remind investors why it's a good stock and should go higher.

Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning.

Home Depot (HD, 78.72) - This company still has long term prospects.  It's earnings have been accelerating and the economy continues to show signs of strength.  It does bother me some that this is currently priced at 18 times it's guided 2014 earnings (I'm actually expecting them to earn $4.50 instead of the 4.32 they've guided).  Great management team that knows how to take the competition on.. This stock has pulled back recently near the price it was at when it announced the quarter.  At the same time, interest rates have been falling.  I think if this gets below 79, you could dip your toes into this stock.  Target price is $86.  HD is 10.6% of my portfolio.

Broadwind Energy (BWEN, 11.87) -  Talk about a wild week.  At one point, this stock was approaching a 22% increase on no news this week!  Since nearly hitting $14, it has been pounded back down.  I have decided to upgrade this stock and take a chance on it if it pulls back from $11.50.  With international turmoil continuing to be a theme, a pure American play will be helpful with an economy that's strengthening.  Considering I wasn't entirely impressed with the last conference call, the stock has performed well, pulling back just a little before charging ahead again this week.  Watching this stock will be interesting.  It could get hit hard if sector indexes are beaten down or it can hold it's own as a pure American play.  Either way the international economic and political events won't drive this company's stock price, but I believe the extension of government subsidies that is due for discussion in the last part of the year will be key.  I'm setting a $13 target price on it right now.  BWEN is 2.6% of my portfolio

Citigroup (C, 47.11) - The disappointments continue.  Earnings weren't strong, the Fed beat them down their capital plans so there are no buybacks or dividends in the next year, and now they appear to be looking down the gun of potential charges from Preet Bahara..  Citi is now the worst house in an improving neighborhood.  Economy seems to be getting better, yet interest rates remain around 2.7%.  The only strength I see from this company in the next few months is if the sector improves.  I now find myself questioning CEO Michael Corbat and his team.  I'd have downgraded this to a 3 if it wasn't for the fact that I don't see much more downside to the stock under current conditions.  Even after continued bad news, the stock hasn't broken below $47.  They announce earnings next week and I anticipate a disappointment.  How the stock reacts will be key.  Expect this stock to do a lot of nothing for the next year.  Don't touch this stock unless it goes below $47 and don't be afraid to move on if you don't want to wait for results.  Citi is 9.5% of my portfolio.

Deere & Company (DE, 91.83) - Deere beat on earnings and revenues a few weeks ago.  Recently, the stock has been on the rise.  Commodity prices are trending upwards - particularly corn - and that is helping give reason to the stock's rise.  Monsanto also reported this week and its strong results for the Ag sector appear to provide more fuel to the bull case.  There is still more upside potential, with my price target of  $100 or more if priced fairly with industry/peers, however, history states you have to watch it closely as it approaches $95 as that seems to be a relative ceiling it's struggled to break through.  This appears to be a stock that is an industrial value play - benefiting from rotation from high priced growth stocks to high value industrials.  DE is 12.4% of my portfolio.

Encana Corporation (ECA, 22.04) - I have updated and upgraded Encana based upon further analysis of the company and where it gets its profits.  Encana reported a beat on earnings and revenues for the fourth quarter.  Additionally a combination of both weather and the Crimean events have lifted both natural gas prices as well as natural gas stocks.  These prices approached $5 over the quarter and have spent much of its time in the mid-$4 range.  This has provided an opportunity for the company to hedge much of 2014's supplies at levels unseen in the last few years and it is appearing that the prices are likely to stay above $4 with the tighter supplies in the market (compared to the $3.75 prices they guided at).  I will need to see sustainability in both gas prices and the results from management to maintain my conviction.  They continue to focus on the Nat Gas liquids, which provide good returns while Nat gas prices work to increase and the glut is decreased.  Encana should be having a strong quarter, given the higher than expected prices and this should translate into a stronger year, providing they locked much of the year's production prices in.  If so, it's reasonable to believe that they can post earnings of $1.25 this year. That would be a 13% increase in earnings from 2013.  At today's closing prices the stock would be a little over 17 times those forward earnings estimates, and somewhat reasonable for a stock and company proving to turn around.  The earnings release in May is likely going to be important for this stock.  Analyst average is currently at $.40 earnings for the first quarter.  That's a 29% year over year increase and may be tough to beat, but the company could still be on pace for $1.25 earnings if it doesn't reach the expectations.  ECA is 12.2% of my portfolio.

Honeywell (HON, 93.33) - This is a stock I can't say enough about.  Great management who deliver again and again, as they did when they announced fourth quarter results a few weeks back.  Guidance was a little lower than expected, but this team is known for conservative estimates which they increase or beat through the year.  Expect this company to continue to be a strong performer as the economy improves.  Stock has already pulled back a bit and if we get positive reports this week, I don't think we'll see much more down side to this.  My target is $100.  HON is 18.9% of my portfolio.

Pepsico (PEP, 82.59) - I admittedly struggle some with this stock.  It recently posted in-line earnings and revenues, earnings growth is in the high single digits, they dramatically increased return to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.  Stock movements since then appear directly related to activist investor actions - either by the actions themselves or investor reactions to it.  I have great faith in the ability and consistency of the Pepsico management team and am sticking with the stock.  It has room for short-term growth as people will add it's shares as a safety stock while things remain uncertain.  PEP is 8.4% of my portfolio

On Semiconductor (ONNN, 9.51) - I apologize as I've somehow left this stock out of my summary for the last few weeks.  As you can see, the ranking hasn't changed since I last reported it.  On Semi has been performing well since it last reported and those numbers were strong too.  The company expects decent growth, but we're also entering a slow time of year for this cyclical company.  On also announced an acquisition this week which it expects to close during this second quarter.  Earnings should be accretive immediately.  I am estimating it will add about 10 cents on top of the analyst-anticipated 62 cents earnings for 2014.  The stock popped nicely on the news, but gave almost all of it back again today on the bad market tape. With this stock a part of the Nasdaq, where high multiple, high growth, or technology stocks are getting sold off, I anticipate short-term pressure..  My price target is 11.50 after their acquisition, though the stock seems more likely to pull back for awhile before it ever gets there.  On Semiconductor is 6.4% of my portfolio.

NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP, 26.49) - I've gotten this stock completely wrong since the I started doing these summaries.  The stock was yet again obliterated this week.  I haven't bought on this constant pullback, but I haven't sold either (shame on me for being greedy).  This stock is clearly a part of the big growth winners being sold to rotate into something else.  The question now is how much more will they sell off and what happens after they're done selling?  The stock broke into my $25 range - what I expected to be the absolute bottom for this stock.  It jumped to $24 six months ago after a good earnings report on how sales of Gattex have grown faster than anticipated and have been received well by patients.  At this point, anything is possible so I don't want to call another bad bottom.  Buy/Sell at your own risk.  I need to understand more before I take any actions on this.  NPSP is 12.5% of my portfolio.