Investment "Logic"

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. The purpose of this discussion and review is to analyze the trades I made in 2014 - what went bad, what went well, and what's still undecided.  Hopefully we'll be able to glean some lessons from the experiences I've had and use those to become better in 2015 - so let's dig in.  Below are all of the trades I made this year.  I'm going to try to break things down stock by stock, not trade by trade, but I'll do my best to keep all of this straight. Trades Made in 2014 The most obvious place to focus consists with the 4 trades of Broadwind Energy (BWEN) that I made in the year.  Simply put, there isn't a single thing I ever di...

This week's middle name was "volatility," as we saw a wild swing to the down side to start the week only to finish very strongly to the up side from then through the end of the week.  There are two key drivers being attributed to this.  First is the fact that oil halted its sell-off and quickly started rebounding.  I can't say there is any driver to why this has happened.  Additionally, I can't say that we're done going up or that it won't go back down.  Still trying to figure all of that out.  Oddly enough, this all started when the "Santa Clause Rally" traditionally starts on Dec 17.  Regardless, when this happened, the Russian Ruble stopped dropping precipitously, the High Yield Corporate bond ETF (HYG) stopped falling in the same fashion, and everyone started feeling better it seems.  Both the Ruble and the HYG were causes for concern as there were fears of the impact that would come if Russia became insolvent as well as if oil continued...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. We've had 2 events with Honeywell this week I should speak to.  First, 2015 earnings guidance has been provided in an analyst call on Monday.  Results were generally in line with what was originally expected - despite the recent bubble popping we've seen in oil.  While not especially surprising to me, the guidance was good.  Honeywell was conservative with their estimates, as has become the norm from this management team.  Despite that, they're still looking at 4% organic growth in sales, and double-digit earnings growth for the year.  That's  not too shabby and if the global economy actually took off, who knows what the...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Encana held a conference call to discuss their capital expenditure plans for 2015 this morning.  To my surprise, they actually announced an increase in production on a day where oil stocks appear to have taken a breather from their descent and bounced some - in the case of Encana, at least 10% at one point during the day before settling back down on a 7.4% gain.  Was the news really that good, or are we looking at something more deceiving.  I'll be honest, I'm not skilled enough to really know.  However, I'll break down what I saw and heard and give my thoughts.  Then we'll see where things go - at least as long as I hold the stoc...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Today I bought a small sum of shares of On Semiconductor at $9.60.  At a 6% pullback, I felt I was starting to see value in a stock that has managed through the volatility of the markets which has been brought on by the crash in Oil.  I still feel at this time the company is performing well as it takes the new imaging acquisitions they've closed this year and turn them into increased earnings.  We are also still in what I consider to be a fairly consistent technical uptrend cycle that should last into the February - April timeframe.  My $11 price target is still intact.  I am not saying the stock is done pulling back yet, but felt...

Stocks took another beating this week as the constant drop in oil prices has pulled the market along with it like a giant commodity.  This was especially painful to my portfolio which has been overly levered to energy, unintentionally, for a very long time now.  As such, I vacated my holding of Broadwind Energy.  I expect more downside to the stock due to a failed or extremely minimal PTC passing before the end of the year as well as decreased earnings and balance from both tower selling and service requests for their gearing division, which has been mostly levered to the oil and gas patches. Oddly enough, the stock is now higher than I sold it at.  No time to dwell, though, and my vision is longer-term than a day or two.  NPS Pharmaceuticals also presented at an Oppenheimer conference, but as expected, there wasn't anything new to help the stock rise. Looking forward, we have a big week ahead.  On Monday, Honeywell presents on what their 2015 financ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Extremely painful trade and lesson today.  I sold all of my shares of Broadwind Energy to raise cash for more fruitful endeavors.  This stock was and has been a total loss for me.  With energy prices and a likely failed PTC renewal in front of us, I don't see any upside to keep fighting the down trend on the stock.  To make things worse, I went through a painful lesson of having to slow down and make sure I have my trade set up properly - I lost my tax-loss benefit and additional transaction fees because I accidentally purchased shares, instead of selling them, then had to sell all of the shares I had.  Don't ever do this, peopl...

As this week closes off, we find ourselves a midst some old patterns and some new information.  First of all, we continue to see energy-related names sitting in the slaughter house as all 3 of my names that have any relation to that sector were beaten up badly.  Additionally, retail and consumer goods still show some strength, however, we did see that strength lighten up some while industrials and banks appear to pick up some steam.  Finally, we received a jobs number today that was so far off from where I guessed that I'm frankly ashamed of my prediction that we'd see a gain in jobs, but less than was expected.  These strong results indicate that our economy continues to strengthen and the strength appears to be accelerating.  This is at the same time that the vast majority of the rest of the world struggles to find its footing - making the USA a more desireable place to invest.  This creates a potential for changes in how big money managers...

A holiday shortened week has passed us, but it was anything but a slow week - at least for my portfolio, which easily under performed the S&P 500.  The primary cause for the lack of performance?  My energy sector holdings got taken to the back forty and shot not once, but at least twice for good measure.  First SeaDrill announced their third quarter on Wednesday and wiped out their dividend, which was well over 10% going into the quarter and was regarded to be dangerous.  Despite this, it didn't stop anyone from taking it, and anything related to it, back to the wood shed.  Then on Thursday, OPEC had their meeting and as I had started to expect, stated that they would not be slowing their production numbers at all.  Apparently this surprised traders and energy related companies were beaten down again, as was oil.  Anything that has any correlation to oil and gas going down being a negative is being hit hard.  This includes alternative ene...

The markets, and fortunately my portfolio, had a strong week.  Key drivers came on US economic news from the Philly Fed, stating the economy is improving much better than people are thinking.  Additionally, we were surprised to hear China's central bank is cutting interest rates to stimulate growth and the ECB's Draghi made public statements yesterday that have many traders believing he'll be making moves to help stimulate the European economies.  Add this in with the fact that the US stock markets have always gone up from November 15 to the end of the year for the last 10 years, you find the market has some legs.  At the same time, I believe some caution must be maintained.  The S&P 500 has been making a very fast and dramatic run and is approaching the top of the channel it's maintained since 2012, as the below 5 year daily chart shows.   I'm not big on technicals, however, they need to be acknowledged and respected as well.  While it's ...