ON Semi - Signs I can be lucky or am maybe learning

Awhile back, I stated that I made a mistake because I have 2 stocks which are speculative.  I've spoken to one of them before - Broadwind Energy (BWEN).  Today, I want to talk about the other - On Semiconductor (ONNN).  For once, I seem to be learning a little bit - although it sure would've been nice to learn more faster here.  I caught wind of this as a stock when seeing it being touted as an mobile internet play a couple years ago.  I saw the CEO speak a time or two on TV and I actually took time to look into the company before I started buying some of the stock.  I was buying during a pretty decent time, as it was the "off months" of the tech sector (tech stocks have an uncanny habit of performing poorly from spring until mid-fall).  But I started losing some of my faith in the stock as it was dropping quite dramatically for a single-digit stock price.  I was becoming bearish and expecting it to drop farther and farther before I should consider doubling down and filling out my position.  However, the stock turned around and I didn't buy because I was sure it'd go back down.  It didn't.  It'd have ups and downs, but it would never reach the levels I was hoping for - forgetting I had other levels I had considered before I got negative.  So the stock rose - and rose quite well.  Next stop, 50% gain.  Not a terrible problem to have, is it?  But then I turned greedy.  Yep, you've heard that theme before.  Stock soars and I watch it drop.  The company wasn't performing poorly, but there were signs that demand was down and by this time, Tech was into it's downturn cycle again.  I lost a chunk of the gains I could've had, but I finally accepted things and still cashed in a nice gain on a chunk of my shares.

So what did I learn from these actions?  Let's try to list them out

  1. If you know there are cycles to how a stock performs, you must pay attention to that calendar so you don't stay too long or wait too long.
  2. It really does help to set pride aside and take actions that make sense.  By doing so, I was able to lock in some gains instead of watching it all fall again.
  3. You must set price points and keep them either remembered, or written down somewhere.  It's not necessarily bad to change your price points if the general flow of the market shows cause for it, but it's very unlikely for you to ever call a top or bottom.  If you set both entry and exit points, at least you don't miss opportunities.  Setting these price points at a time when the market is not in flux is always a good idea too.
  4. Sometimes market cycles will trump company performance.  It's true that market demand was waning for awhile, but ONNN was consistently beating numbers despite that fact.  The company performance was trumped by the market cycle.  This will often happen with tech stocks in particular.  If you know what you own, you can at least trade around your core position and make money as the stock price rises and falls while your thesis continues its progress.
So I finally have some success.  That success is helping me learn too.  Maybe these lessons will help you understand the importance of paying attention to what you own too.

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