Investment "Logic"

Today was a wild day for Ionis.  After FDA results for a competing drug failed to show signs that it was effective enough to prevent competition for FCS in the mix, IONS was up over 10% at varying points during the day.  I was contemplating selling some, given I was finally back in the green on the stock.  However, there was a PDUFA meeting coming on Thursday for the approval on Volanasorsen on the radar and I didn't want to try to sell out and hope to get back in to maximize gains (typically after a big jump, the stock sells off for a couple days).  Then after the bell, the stock was halted as the FDA issued a Complete Response Letter (CRL) notifiying their holding company Akcea that they have rejected their drug Walivra on serious concerns on safety with antisense oligonucleotide drugs.  This puts the upcoming PDUFA in some jeapordy and the future PDUFA for Inotersen in serious jeapordy (due to the fact it suffered a death related to platelet issues), sign...

In preparation of the second portion of the CCAR results that will be announced tomorrow, I refilled my position in Citigroup today, purchasing shares at $66.  Unfortunately, I didn't get shares purchased yesterday when the stock was in the $64s and then I pulled the trigger a little too early today, as the market started making a massive swing to the down side around the time of my purchase.  My reasoning for purchasing the stock was that it was near the price target area I've been hoping for since I sold up in the $72 range and we now have a catalyst which I believe will charge all bank stocks in the second half of the year.  The CCAR results have been an inflection point for bank stocks, historically, as they are then allowed to start to distribute their excess capital as per agreement with the Fed.  I believe that Citi's captial distribution plan will be well received by the Fed, enabling them to distribute approximately $20B in dividends and stock buy...

After much contemplation, I decided it was time to move into a new position today and purchased half of my position in Raytheon at $188.50.  Raytheon is a defense company primarily known for the production of Patriot Missiles - a surface to air anti-missle defense system.  However, they also produce other items, play in cyber security and deep analytical analysis as well.  My theory is related to the fact that the US is looking to bolster their own military capabilities, to which Trump's declaration for a space force added to, but also the fact that the US is no longer spending as much of its money to protect its allies.  This means they need to increase their own purchases and Trump is using defense as something he's trying to push in all of his trade discussions.  These situations, I believe, spell out a strong runway towards ongoing profits in what is generally a robust global economy right now.  It is true that the Trade war pressures has the potent...

Back on April 30 (yeah, I'm way behind), Pepsico announced their first quarter financial earnings for 2018.  Earnings came in at $0.96, beating consensus by three cents and sales were $12.56B also ahead of analyst expectations of $12.35B.  Finally, organic growth came in line with company guidance at 2.3%.  In all, the quarter was solid.  Maybe not perfect, but definitely solid. As has been the case for a couple quarters already, North American Beverages (NAB) under performed the overall company.  There were operating and raw material inflation costs as well as some one-time bonus impacts.  That said, NAB did improve performance quarter over quarter for the third quarter in a row.  Guidance has been that this is the path they're on and that it will continue, so I see that as a positive at this point.  There are worries among the analyst community about competition and pricing wars, particularly in the sports drink section, but management see...

Today I increased my position in Pepsico by 25% at a price of $97.25.  While I haven't had a chance to complete my homework and post my review on the company's first quarter results, I do know the company beat expectations and provided a solid set of results for the quarter.  The one thing that I noted to like, in particular, was the fact that North American Beverages (NAB) didn't do as bad as analysts expected.  While there is some concern on all of the China and Tariff talks impacting the stock and the fact that the company is seeing more competition against the 10-year treasury, we've now seen the stock drop roughly 21% from its 52 week highs.  This selloff is getting to be over done and any good news could sent the stock higher.  If the stock drops to $92.75 we'll see the stock yielding 4% and that's far from typical for this consistent player.  I do have more room in my position and cash levels to take advantage of more down side - and I do see pot...

Back on April 20, Honeywell announced the results of their first quarter operations.  Results were strong, with earnings coming in a $1.95 and sales coming in at $10.4B - both of which were beats against expectations of $1.90 and $10.02B respectively.  Organic sales also beat guidance of 2% - 4%, by resulting in 5% along with 40 basis points of margin expansion and $1B of cash flow.  Additionally, the company spent $1.4B in share repurchases ($950M) and dividends since there weren't ideal investment opportunities to go after.  Growth was led by the aerospace division with 8% organic growth along with 6% organic growth from the Safety and Productivity solutions division.  Home and Business Technologies and Performance Materials and Technologies grew 2% and 3% organically, respectively.   Results were strong enough that the company raised EPS guidance to a range of $7.85 - $8.05, raising both the lower and upper ends.  They anticipate organic...

Oh how the times change so easily.  It's become apparent that the stock market of 2017 is gone and what has taken its place is one filled with uncertainty and volatility.  Repeatedly over the last number of weeks we face wild swings as our President tweets, aids calm fears, and new complications arise.  It's important to note that for the last month and a half, we've truly been in the grips of a macro environment where everything from Presidential Tweets, Fed statements, Jobs reports, and other extraneous political and macroeconomic news controls the markets.  The one thing that could potentially put some calm to the market - earnings season - only started on Friday and despite what was a strong showing out of our biggest banks, what started as strong gains were wiped out and met with losses as people got prepared for a weekend which included fears of us dropping missiles on Syria (it happened Friday night and then called a "complete success"), as well as fea...