Investment "Logic"

Major indices took a breather this week as the S&P 500 pulled back 1.4% while all eyes were fixated on Washington DC.  The focus here was on the House's attempt to pass their AHCA bill, which had very weak support nationally speaking.  Getting the Republican votes necessary to pass the bill and send it to the Senate for battle proved impossible and no push or negotiation from the President seemed to conjure any extra buy-in.  The markets appear to be trying to digest all of this news and extrapolate it into what they really care about - tax reform.  Worries that the AHCA battles would drag on certainly brought more caution in, however much of the speak is that with this current failure, the house will likely put this aside and move on to tax reform.  I believe there's a worry that if the President couldn't get the repeal and replace through successfully, what are the chances he'll have success on other endeavors.  Tax cuts are typically easier...

So it's been a while since I've last done a weekly summary as I've been working to get caught up on fourth quarter reports.  Now I'm back at it and I've got a lot to catch up on.  It's been a wild few weeks with the various political events, the February jobs report being announced as much stronger than expected, and now the Fed has raised interest rates by another quarter percent.  The market, overall, has contined its climb slightly, based off of earnings, but has recently leveled off more, not really going anywhere.  Unfortunately, my portfolio can't say the same.  The majority of my stocks have been relatively flat for the last few weeks.  However, Ionis Pharmaceuticals has been gut wrenching.  First it shot up on strong earnings results, then came the lastest phase 3 drug test results and a subsequent downgrade by Goldman Sachs and the stock has since taken quite the beating.   Despite the rate hike of 25 basis points by the Fed this w...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. It's been a couple weeks since Ionis reported fourth quarter and fiscal year earnings results.  And the two weeks since has been a whirlwind of news to process.  As such, I'll take some time to talk about earnings, but also the events since that earnings call to see if I can place where everything really is at.   Starting with the earnings report, as Ionis pre-announced, they were well ahead of guidance and expectations, primarily due to the FDA approval of SPINRAZA and the resulting milestone payment from Biogen.  Revenues came in at $160.3 million - over 50% above expectations of $99.3M.  The resulting earnings of $0.26 which ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On February 21 (yeah, I know I'm way late), Home Depot announced fourth quarter and fiscal year results for 2016.  Instead of using words to describe how the quarter went, I thought I'd just leave this: That baseball is essentially sell side analysts and their estimates for the quarter and the year - completely spanked, thought that can also be said about the guidance provided by Home Depot's management.  To get more specific, Home Depot reported sales of $22.2B and earnings of $1.44.  This was against expectations of $21.73B and $1.33 respectively.  Not only this, but same store comps were up 5.8%  and 6.3%  in the US...