Investment "Logic"

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Honeywell reported on their first quarter results for 2015 back on April 22nd.  Earnings were $1.53 on sales of $9.5B.  This beat on both top and bottom line estimates from Analysts of $1.50 and $9.37B.  In addition to beating expectations, Honeywell also raised their lower end of guidance from $6.45 by ten cents, creating a range now of $6.55 - $6.70.  While results and guidance were positive, and generally in line with how management approaches almost every quarter, the results received little fan fare.  I see a few factors to this.  The first is that this is what we've come to expect almost every quarter, though the ten ce...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Back on April 15 (yeah, I know I'm a bit slow here), Citigroup reported their earnings results for their first quarter.  Earnings beat expectations of $1.07, coming in at $1.10 however, revenues of $17.56B did miss the consensus of $17.61B.  As we knew going into the results, the quarter was much more challenging than management had expected, as were the conditions for all institutional banks.  Trading and investment banking and consumer investment services like wealth management were particularly impacted this quarter, due to investor sentiment.  The latter, in particular, felt its pain from the impacts of the fall of China's markets....

Not a lot of new information to report from the portfolio and markets over the last week.  Yes, the markets and portfolio was down, but it wasn't exactly violently slow.  If anything, I'd say the thing to note is the volatility levels being so low.  People are becoming more bullish, but they're also extremely wary of another deep pull back.  I think that leaves us in a position of meandering around for a little while.  With earnings season upon us, it's possible that this will start giving the market a charge in one direction or another.  Will we see more earnings overseas due to a weaker dollar?  Will politics be a problem?  Will the Fed step in and start raising rates near the end of the month?  These are the things I think we need to be watching for. For the week ahead, my portfolio is officially going into earnings season with the first quarter results from Citigroup, Friday morning.  A number of weeks the company warned of a ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Yesterday Ionis Pharmaceuticals posted an update on its 2 Phase 3 studies regarding their anti-sense therapy for TTR.  In short, the FDA put a hold on the start of the study for the FCA version of the therapy (for heart-related TTR), which is being operated by Glaxo-Smith Klein (GSK), while the FAP version (for neurological-related TTR) continues on its normal path.  This news event caused the stock to go down over 13% at one point yesterday before it closed down over 10%.  Today it was down another 2%, presumably related to this news.   Traditionally, an FDA hold is a bad thing for biotech companies as it indicates an issue in a tes...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Yesterday I purchased 20 shares of Ionis Pharmaceuticals at $43.47.  This was after the news regarding the FDA's decision to put a clinical hold on the TTR testing with Glaxo-Smith Klein, which Ionis is partnered with.  I found the 6%+ pullback to be an opportunity and the price was starting to climb quickly.  Thinking I needed to get in quick as the stock was likely done going down, I panicked and bought higher than I should've or would've liked.  That said, I was planning to double down when I bought my next position and instead cut it in half in the event the price drops more and I needed to take advantage.  I needed to stay mo...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Pepsico announced their first quarter results on Monday.  Results were positive with earnings, reporting a core-constant result of $0.89 - eight cents over consensus.  Revenues were just below expectations (in line basically) at $11.86B.  Foreign currency translation continues to be an ongoing issue in terms of net profits and there were some one-time charges to reduce the value of their 5% stake in a Chinese beverage company and to roll off their Venezuelan business.  The core-constant EPS growth of 11% compared to a year ago is a testament to what Pepsico has been doing in terms of cost cutting and margin improvements, both which wer...

Another week has completed and I have to say the market performed much better than I anticipated.  What I was clearly unaware of when I wrote last week's summary was that Fed chair Janet Yelled was set to speak in front of the New York Economic Club and that her speech would hold significance to the market and the events that have been transpiring up to that point.  When she spoke, Chairwoman Yellen clearly stated that the jobs report would not be the only thing that needs to be noted in a decision regarding the next rate hike.  The Fed would continue to be cautious, and also pay attention to the varying domestic and global data to key on proper signals to move.  The key word we haven't really heard before was the word 'global.'  It's now recognized the impact we have on the rest of the world, how rate increases impact the exchange rates to the US Dollar, and how it can ripple through the global economy in a powerful fashion.  I'm not here to say wheth...