Investment "Logic"

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. It's a good thing that Home Depot sells roofs - they blew theirs off when they announced fourth quarter and fiscal year 2015 earnings, today.  I dont' think this is any form of exaggeration either.  This quarter was beyond words, yet management spoke them eloquently anyway.  Earnings came in at $1.17, seven cents above consensus and revenues topped $20.39B expectations, instead hitting $21B in sales.  Store comps were flat out explosive at a 7.1% increase (8.9% for US stores) over the same quarter in 2014.  Analysts were only expecting a 5.9% increase. Ladies and gentlemen, this is Home Depot.  A company that is w...

A good week!  OMG, I had a good week!  Well, so did the market, in all honesty, and this is the first time in 2016 this really could be said.  Does this mean that we've hit a bottom?  Honestly, I'm not certain.  The overall mood of the market does feel a little better, but it also feels a little too good to be true.  Like we've had a big jump up and now it needs to come back down.  And that's what I've been feeling - we need to push towards a retest.  So far, the S&P 500 still has trends of lower highs and lower lows.  That hasn't been broken yet.  If it breaks through 1940, then I am more willing to say I'm wrong.  That said, there is still too much uncertainty about oil - do people really believe everyone in the Middle East is going to get along and cap production?  I have to say I find it hard to believe why hundreds of years of bickering will stop now.  China has also flattened out, mainly due to government in...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Back on Wednesday, Cedar Fair announced their earnings results for the fourth quarter of 2015.  Results were quite mixed, recording a loss of $0.46 per share, and revenues coming in at $166.9M.  No guidance for the next quarter or year was directly provided.   While seeing such a deep loss on earnings was a bit disappointing, it wasn't exactly a bad quarter.  As I said, revenues beat expectations, and fairly decently too.  Cash flow continues to be strong, and the investments they've made - especially in some of their resort spaces appear to be paying off.  Next year they'll be introducing a new roller coaster in their Ceda...

Stocks went through yet another difficult week, as did my portfolio.  Testimony from Janet Yellen on Capitol Hill earlier in the week yielded no comments to allow people to feel like the risk of another rate hike in March was minimized.  At the same time oil hit new multi-year lows before more rumors regarding an OPEC summit to cut down supply started surfacing, pushing the price back up into the 29s from the 26s.  Add into that various government information (except jobs numbers) which indicate slowing growth, and world-wide numbers that show slow growth to recessions most other places and you get no help to keep prices held up.  So far, 62.75% of the S&P 500 has reported and of that, over 69% has beat expectations while just over 20% has missed.  So past earnings are still doing OK.  However, 2016 earnings are now down to $119.91 whereas 3 weeks ago it was at $123.  This shows that people are at the least very cautious about our current envi...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Back on Thursday, Pepsico announced their 2015 fourth quarter results.  Overall performance was generally in line with analyst expectations as core EPS came in at $1.06 and revenues were $18.58B  The earnings resulted in a 10% core constant EPS growth, but was dramatically impacted by foreign exchange rates, which resulted in revenues being down 7% for the quarter.  Historical results weren't anything to complain about as the company met or exceeded on all financial goals they established for the year.  That said, forward guidance certainly was a wet blanket, of sorts.  It's not exactly surprising, as we've seen similar tales told...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Monday morning, On Semi posted earnings of $0.19 on revenues of $840M.  Earnings met expectations, but the revenues missed slightly.  The result was the stock getting pounded hard.  It was a little above $8 prior to the release and has subsequently hit a 52 week low of $6.97.  I certainly don't feel like this quarter's results justified the move down like this, but let's see what else may have had an impact. The quarter really seemed to have a mixed bag of results.  On the positive side, expenses were down and free cash flow was up.  On the down side, all products sales were down quarter over quarter - with Systems Solution...

The violent roller coaster ride continues as the markets whipsawed through the week, starting rather strong to the upside and ending the week strong to the down side.  The US jobs number came in at 157,000 new jobs, which while much smaller than last month, is still strong enough to provide a very solid upwards trend.  This likely had an effect on the markets with people continuing to expect the Fed still sees inflation risk and therefore will raise rates again, while the rest of the world is deflating.  All eyes will be on Janet Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday as she speaks before the Congressional Finance Committee.  If she doesn't say anything that makes people read into taking the foot off the accelerator, we'll likely see the market stay more negative.   The upcoming week is going to get a bit more busy as my portfolio has two companies reporting their fourth quarter earnings - On Semiconductor and Pepsico.  On Monday, On Semi will announce the...