Investment "Logic"

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Yesterday, we heard a slew of news come from Ionis Pharmaceuticals, so I thought it might be worth taking a moment to look at the information and determine if it has an effect on the stock's performance or my thesis.  There were 3 major press events today.  First, this morning they announced the results from their COMPASS phase 3 study for Volanesorsen.  Then after the closing bell they announced the advancement into the pre-clinical phase of an unnamed cardiovascular disease treatment.  Finally, CEO Stanley Crooke appeared on CNBC's "Mad Money" to talk about his company and their announcements.   First up is the Volanesorsen de...

Wrapping up another week on a rather strong note with my portfolio and in the overall markets.  The enthusiasm and optimism for the future continues to shine overall as broad market indexes continue to rise.  As we head into the holidays, trading volume is likely to get lower and the market will swing primarily to major news themes.  While there will be some earnings announcements, they won't involve stocks from my portfolio, so there is little to be concerned with in that respect.   From now, until the new year I don't expect a lot of earth shattering news.  As such, this will be my last weekly summary of the year.  If certain stocks have something notable, I'll write up on that separately.  Instead, I'll be preparing my year-end reviews.  I'm also looking to create some new segments to my blog or features within these posts to help improve my overall trading disciplines.  I may make some posts in those regards to get a feel for them...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On Friday, Honeywell shared their 2017 forecast with the investing community.  The truth of the matter is that the results felt mixed.  In fact, initial headlines of the press release was strongly negative.  The company has reiterated their fourth quarter results for 10% earnings growth and a target of $1.74 for the quarter ($6.53 for the year).  While this was within the range, it was at the low end of the range, which is somewhat disappointing.  Additionally, they lowered sales and earnings expectations for 2017.  Reported sales will be down 1%-2% primarily due to divestitures after gains from acquisitions.  Earnings a...

As expected, we didn't see anything significant to move stocks.  That said, they did move as the "Trump Rally," as media outlets continue to dub it, continues to move stocks higher overall with financials, industrials, and retail leading the way while healthcare, staples, and utilities tend to lag the market.  It's safe to say there is a new energy in the market since the election.  A form of euphoria, if you will, though I don't think that's the right word because euphoria tends to happen near tops and I don't think we're close to one on a longer term basis.  I am anticipating a correction to come, but probably not until after the holidays.  The move has been strong and swift and that usually requires some form of breather along the way.   All said, the stock market seems to has a sudden sense of hope and positivity which hasn't existed since before the financial crisis.  The Dow Transports have surged into all time highs, which usually bod...

It's been awhile since I've done a weekly review of my portfolio.  Much of the time has been put into personal needs and reviewing the quarterly results that have been put out by each of the companies.  Now that I have gotten caught up on my entire portfolio, it's time to get back to this and get prepared to deliver for year-end.  Besides third quarter financial reporting, we've had quite a lot go on.  We've had numerous positive jobs reports, we've seen interest rates rise in anticipation of a Fed rate hike in December, and most notably has been the conclusion of the US election, resulting in a government that is geared specifically to be for the corporation, rather than for the labor constituents.  That said, President-elect Trump is a bit of an enigma and it's clear no one can fully understand just what to expect from him.  The one thing I can say we have now that we didn't have last time I wrote, it more clarity.  With elections out of the way...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Home Depot announced third quarter earnings results for 2016 on November 15.  Sales came in at $23.3B, resulting in earnings of $1.60.  This beat the consensus of $23.09 in sales and earnings of $1.58.  Comparable sales were up 5.5% overall and 5.9% in the US.  Finally, they also delivered forward guidance which kept sales growth targets in line with previous communications and raised earnings per share estimates for 2016 to $6.33 which would be a 15.9% growth from 2016.  Keep in mind that this means the dividend is likely increasing as well, since Home Depot usually returns half of the earnings in dividends the next year (3.16 fo...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On November 9, Ionis Pharmaceuticals announced the results for their third quarter, 2016 results.  For the quarter, they posted earnings of $0.06 on earnings of $110.9M.  These results are mixed with analyst expectations with earnings expected to be a loss of $0.02 on earnings of $112.67M.  While the results were mixed, the stock soared off of the earnings announcement and call.  I'll get into that shortly, however I also want to note that cash equivalents were higher than I expected, with $687.8M in reserves, which is down from the $779.2M they had a year ago.  Reserves were expected to go down due to extra expenses in getting th...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On Semi held their 2016 third quarter results back on November 6.  Results were earnings of $0.24 on $950.9M.  These results were mixed with expectations of earnings of $0.24 on revenue of $955.5M.  During the quarter, they completed their acquisition of Fairchild semiconductor and are seeing larger synergies develop faster than expected, while at the same time seeing increased complimentary products than originally expected.  It's also important to note that the miss on revenues is the $5M not realized due to divestitures the company made over the third quarter.   The quarter, as a whole, wasn't really a lot to write home about...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On November 2, Cedar Fair announced their third quarter results for fiscal year 2016. Net revenues came in at $650M, resulting in earnings of $3.10.  Both of these numbers missed the estimates of $3.54 earnings on $656M in revenues.  Despite those misses, the stock has risen over 4% since the announcement, regardless of the political landscape we've faced with the US Elections taking place.  Despite missing expectations, the company announced that their revenues through the end of October (Q3 was through the end of September) hit record levels of $1.1B, a 3% increase over the same time period last year.  The board also approved a 4% in...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. OK, before I begin on Honeywell's third quarter call, it's best that I retrace some other events I didn't have a chance to talk about.  About 3 weeks prior to their results, Honeywell released information noting that the third quarter didn't do as well as they had expected and they lowered the top end of their earnings and sales targets for the year.  The market took swift action, hacking off over 8% off of the news.  A lot of this had to do with the fact that it looked like all progress within the company was slowing and things were quickly turning for the worse.  The stock responded so strongly that a couple days later, CEO Dave Cote...