Investment "Logic"

I feel like the theme for the market and my portfolio for the month of July comes straight out of the old TV series, "Fantasy Island," with tattoo exclaiming "The pain!  The pain!"  Ok, not quite what he said, but it fits well anyway.  When one worry passes, a new one seems to take hold and the markets shudder in fear lately.  Now the fears are focused on a combination of the economic crash of China, as numerous industrial companies label it a place of complications with their second quarter earnings announcements.  This is adding to European pressures, which already existed and is giving the US dollar more strength.  That strength has an adverse affect to the stock market, now that so many companies are international.  Domestic stocks appear to be braving the turmoil better than the rest, as we see continued signs of US retail and housing strength.   While earnings season is still in full swing, I will not have any stocks announcing this we...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Last Friday, Honeywell did another bang-up job, delivering the types of quarters I've come to expect.  Earnings were delivered at $1.51, two cents above estimates, while revenues were a healthy beat of $9.8B.  Additionally, the company raised the lower end of it's guidance for 2015 by five cents, putting the range now at $6.05 - $6.15.  While the guidance raise isn't exactly surprising to me, the rate and size of the guidance is starting to indicate that both my guidance, and potentially the high mark of these estimates could be beat due to the "accelerating organic growth" the company is seeing and predicted would continue throughout th...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Last week, Citigroup posted their second quarter results which  came   in   pleasantly above expectations.  With earnings coming in at $1.51 and revenues modestly beating at $19.2B.  The biggest factor to the earnings beat was the dramatic decrease in legal expenses, with an ongoing theme that these should continue to improve in the quarters ahead as well.  Diminishing legal concerns help us find clarity in what the company is capable of doing.  Gains made from their trading business was respectable, costs continue to be pulled down under control and the anticipation of looming rate hikes mean banks will be able to make ...

Greece and China and Puerto Rico, oh my!  That was the general theme for the market movement in the last week.  While markets were hurt significantly early in the week due to Greece's vote against Austerity, China's crashing stock market, and news from Puerto Rico on an inability to pay its debt.  As the week came near the end, China's government forced a stop in the declines by criminalizing sales of certain stocks, Puerto Rico's concerns appear addressed, or at least forgotten, and suddenly everyone is talking about a deal with Greece, which could at the very least kick the can down the road a couple years.  This left things unchanged overall for the week, but wow, what a ride it was! This next week of trading will start as the last few have, with Greece front and center on the markets.  If there's no deal or a deal falls through, I think it's safe to say we'll see another beating against the US stock markets as well.  However, if a deal of some sor...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. I get the feeling I've been in this position before.  I find myself in a position where the stock has pulled back and I start thinking we're entering a time that may no longer be wise to hold the stock.  And just as I'm preparing to sell the stock, an earnings release comes out and hits me upside the head like someone swinging a 12-pack of Mountain Dew at it.  This was one of those moments.  Today Pepsico announced earnings of $1.33 on $15.9B in revenues.  Earnings were significantly higher than anticipated and revenues were a nice beat, despite ongoing pressure from foreign exchange translation.  Margins were up on improved ...

It's been 2 weeks since my last summary.  The markets (and more particularly so, my portfolio) got beat up pretty bad over this period of time as fears of rate hikes, pending doom with a Greek default, the dollar gaining value again, and Puerto Rico suddenly unable to pay on their debts all hit the markets hard.  Greece still hangs in the balance, and a tepid jobs number leads me to believe we will continue to see volatility through the summer months due to a lack of certainty of where company earnings will head and where the valuable investments will be.   While the markets and my portfolio took a hit, I did a little buying to strengthen positions in my portfolio that I believe have no impact from Greece, a stronger dollar, or interest rate hikes.  At the same time, I took a significant set back in my On Semi investment.  Because I was out on business and unable to watch closely, I failed to sell some of my position as the stock broke through support and quic...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. With the morass driving the markets via Greece, Puerto Rico, and the jobs report tomorrow, I took advantage of some pullbacks in stock prices to add to my positions in both Cedar Fair and Isis Pharma.   WIth Cedar Fair, I added a small position at a price of $54.40 despite the fact that the stock was only down a few percent from where I purchased my first position.  The stock was showing technical signs of being oversold and it had crossed the 5.5% yield mark.  I needed to keep the addition small, though, as I see potential risk for the stock to go lower yet.  With the jobs report coming out tomorrow, there's potential that yield rep...