Investment "Logic"

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Ensco PLC announced their fourth quarter and fiscal year 2014 results on Thursday.  The Fourth quarter actually beat analyst estimates of $1.38 by coming in at $1.68 on in-line revenues of $1.16B.  Under normal circumstances or even just considering the difficulties the company faced, these might not be considered all that bad for results.  However, the saying goes it's not how things went in the past, it's what's going to happen in the future and, frankly, the future certainly isn't in need of shades right now.   Now I'll be up front, it's not like it's a surprise that the industry is doing poorly.  Commodity prices were cut in...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. This morning, Home Depot announced what I can't help but feel was an outstanding quarter.  Earnings blew away the $0.89 estimates, coming in at $1.05 - $1 if you include profits from the sale of a portion of HD Supply.  Revenues also beat the $18.69B estimates, coming in at $19.2B.  Same store sales rose an astounding 7.9% for the fourth quarter.  Looking at the full year, the company earned $4.71 which was over a 25% increase from 2013.  Revenues grew 5.5% from 2013 to $83.2B and same store sales were up 5.3%.  Sales were strong across the entire store all comping a minimum of mid single-digit percentage increases from last ...

As the last week was generally uneventful, outside of the continued macro stories about oil prices and the Greek debt vs. the Euro situation, let's just move straight into next week.  We have an extremely busy week in front of us next week as 3 of my holdings report.  Starting on Tuesday, Home Depot will announce their fourth quarter and fiscal year 2015 results.  Expectations are set at $0.89 earnings with $18.69B in earnings.  While the results will be important, I think the biggest keys will be in regards to what they're seeing now and into their 2016 guidance with the low interest rate market combined with more confident consumers.  I expect we'll hear glowing remarks, but be prepared for a poor stock reaction if the numbers or guidance aren't impressive, as it's run a lot over the last quarter.  On Thursday, Ensco reports their fourth quarter and fiscal year 2014 results.  Expectations are $1.36 in earnings on ...

The last week was generally quiet, though there were numerous mixed results for earnings. Overall, the market decided to progress higher, which sounds great and isn't exactly bad, however, we have to be careful how much it continues to move without new information supporting that move.  At current levels, the market is just starting to inch into overvalued territory, based on current earnings information.  We know jobs are getting stronger, we know Europe is showing signs of bottoming, but until that translates into increased revenues, I'd much rather see the market pause or pull back 5%.  By no means does this mean I believe it's time to hide in cash - unless something turns bad.   For the week ahead, there isn't really a lot going on in regards to my portfolio.  We will begin to hear more from other retail companies, and with that we'll likely hear more information on the US vs. European consumers.  This may have an impact on the domestic vs. inter...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On Wednesday, Pepsico announced their fourth quarter and fiscal year financial results for 2014.  The company did an excellent job of beating expectations on the fourth quarter by generating $1.12 of earnings on $19.95B in revenues.  Both numbers handily beat wall street expectations of $1.08 EPS and $19.66B in revenues.  I made a mistake in my weekly summary, stating I was looking for high digit organic growth - that was supposed to be earnings growth.  Earnings grew 7% from the same quarter a year ago, and 9% on the annual numbers.  Going into the call, the biggest concerns were foreign exchange impacts, business in Russia and V...

The market continues to challenge us with its violent moves up and down, however, the S&P 500 has spent the first 5 weeks of the year basically not moving as it bounces in V-shaped tops and bottoms betweeen $2064 and $1990.  The story to the earnings season has been how international companies (save a hand full of exceptions) have been marred by currency conversion losses and domestic companies have been doing generally well.  The domestic theme was reaffirmed on Friday when the January jobs number came in above expectations.  The employment rate decreased as more people returned to the market in hopes of finding a job.  Wages also grew 2.2% compared to a year ago and that drove many traders to begin the "fear the Fed" trade as predictions of interest rate increases happening earlier than expected and the "impending doom" related with it ended up sending the market down after a strong start on the day. While only 5 weeks into the year, I'm getting a s...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. After the closing bell today, On Semiconductor announced fourth quarter and fiscal year earnings results.  Fourth quarter earnings came in at $0.17, beating estimates by a penny.  Earnings of $864.2M also beat expectations on the quarter.  To round out the trifecta of a good earnings report, the company also announced continued strong sales going into the current quarter and provided very encouraging guidance for 2015.  Revenue guidance is $840M to $880M, basically flat quarter over quarter.  This is a typical pattern for the company's seasonality, but with the added benefit of a stronger than normal quarter this time around. ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Not quite sure how or why, but it appears that all of the stars appropriately aligned today, allowing me to both clear a position and start my replacement for that position. Today I sold my remaining position of NPS Pharmaceuticals for $45.90  I have come to learn that there are terms to the sale which would actually cost me more than the few cents I'm missing out on of the full $46 deal - even when including my trade fees.  As such, it seemed wiser to take this money, have it at the ready and save myself a few bucks over all.  Outside of the reorg costs I didn't know I'd incur, this trade shouldn't be the least bit surprising as it's pa...