Investment "Logic"

A holiday shortened week has passed us, but it was anything but a slow week - at least for my portfolio, which easily under performed the S&P 500.  The primary cause for the lack of performance?  My energy sector holdings got taken to the back forty and shot not once, but at least twice for good measure.  First SeaDrill announced their third quarter on Wednesday and wiped out their dividend, which was well over 10% going into the quarter and was regarded to be dangerous.  Despite this, it didn't stop anyone from taking it, and anything related to it, back to the wood shed.  Then on Thursday, OPEC had their meeting and as I had started to expect, stated that they would not be slowing their production numbers at all.  Apparently this surprised traders and energy related companies were beaten down again, as was oil.  Anything that has any correlation to oil and gas going down being a negative is being hit hard.  This includes alternative ene...

The markets, and fortunately my portfolio, had a strong week.  Key drivers came on US economic news from the Philly Fed, stating the economy is improving much better than people are thinking.  Additionally, we were surprised to hear China's central bank is cutting interest rates to stimulate growth and the ECB's Draghi made public statements yesterday that have many traders believing he'll be making moves to help stimulate the European economies.  Add this in with the fact that the US stock markets have always gone up from November 15 to the end of the year for the last 10 years, you find the market has some legs.  At the same time, I believe some caution must be maintained.  The S&P 500 has been making a very fast and dramatic run and is approaching the top of the channel it's maintained since 2012, as the below 5 year daily chart shows.   I'm not big on technicals, however, they need to be acknowledged and respected as well.  While it's ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Today Home Depot announced their third quarter 2015 earnings results.  The company stated earnings of $1.15 on revenues of $20.5B.  Both of these beat estimates of $1.13 and $20.4B respectively.  However, there are analysts out there that are stating that earnings were really at $1.12 and I haven't yet figured out how they come to that number.  The only thing I can think of is some 1-time profits from sale of shares of HD Supply.  That is really the only blemish you could find in their report and conference call.  Revenues were up 5.2%, comps were up in all regions, across all areas of the store - especially the core.  B...

The week goes by as the averages push to new heights again.  Meanwhile my portfolio improves some, but continues to be clearly weighed by my position in stocks impacted by the price of crude oil, which dropped more again this week.  NPSP announced disappointing numbers, but was able to help instill some confidence in their future prospects.  Meanwhile the numbers for Encana were mixed and their future prospects are in question - namely because of oil and gas commodity risk as well as bold comments stating they will be pushing for more capital spend and production next year despite what we've been seeing in those commodity prices. In the week ahead, Home Depot will announce their 2015 third quarter financial results.  Despite this being the first earnings announcement being led by new CEO Craig Menear, I really don't expect us to see much of anything different from the past.  The management team is strong and well prepared.  As such, I expect strong q...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Yesterday, Encana announced their third quarter 2014 earnings.  Operating earnings came in at $0.38, below the $0.42 estimates I had found.  Additionally I believe the earnings estimates I had found of $1.7B were met.  I've struggled to find the comp number since it doesn't seem to be a straight up Revenues comparison.  The number I found to be most likely was $1.7B.  All other numbers were much higher and if those are the normal comparable numbers, you see an increase due to the sales/purchases the company has been making over this time.  Based upon how this company likes to report, I get the feeling I should be watching fre...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Yesterday NPS Pharma announced their third quarter results.  Despite missing estimates on both top and bottom lines with earnings of $-0.02 and revenues of $57.2M, the stock responded favorably today.  Sales of Gattex/Revestive met expectations of $28.1M and they also made $29.1M - which was 3.5% higher than what they made the year previous.  They also provided guidance for 2014 on the lower end of their ranges with sales likely being closer to $100M.  One of the largest factors to this quarter's miss on earnings has to do with dramatically increased expenses.  Almost all of these increases could be attributed to their efforts in ...

Another week has passed and a few major events have come and gone.  First, the mid-term elections have completed and we now have ourselves set with a republican majority congress and senate.  While having a majority, they don't have enough to override a veto from a democratic president, so we're looking at a government that might be mostly out of the way.  Additionally, the October non-Farm payroll numbers (jobs) came out and missed expectations, but weren't "bad."  The country continues to grow jobs, but it's happening slowly and there aren't any wage increases to go along with this.  This means the odds of inflation taking off are quite slim and I believe this will be a key driver to rates going higher. Looking into the week ahead, I have 2 companies in my portfolio that report.  The first is NPS Pharma, which announces on Monday after the close.  The second is Encana, who has their call Wednesday morning.  Both will be calls th...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Last week, Ensco announced their third quarter results, which beat expectations.  Earnings came in at $1.93 and revenues were $1.26B.  The problem and ongoing concern continues with the guidance.  It was stated that the downturn in oil prices started right at most company's budgeting season, and as such, the season has been slowed to to adjust to changing market conditions.  Ensco will not be able to provide any difinitive perspective until the end of the fourth quarter, but they are guessing "than an upturn in demand is less likely before 2016."  This flattening growth is and will continue to be a huge reason for the stock price ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On Semiconductor announced their third quarter 2014 results Thursday after the close of the markets.  Earnings came in at $0.21, just under estimates while revenues came in at $833.5M which beat expectations.  Expenses were up some and margins were down compared to the second quarter, but it can be said that all of the misses and beats were mostly related to their acquisition of Aptiva closing 6 weeks prior to the end of the quarter.  Also, there was a pause in sales in the last half of October, which has subsequently picked back up and accelerated in October.  This is a fairly mixed bag of results, which all added up comes to roughly ...