Investment "Logic"

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Yesterday Broadwind Energy announced their third quarter 2014 results.  I can't mince words here.  To call the quarter disappointing would be foolish.  It was a downright disaster and the stock price was obliterated for it.  Earnings came in at $-0.12 - yes, that's a negative - on revenues of $60.3M.  That's a miss from guidance of 40% !  That wasn't enough bad news, though.  To finish us off with the upper cut, they also downgraded 2014 guidance on revenues and earnings.  So we've gone from expectations of the company making a profit in 2014 (albeit only a few cents per share) to a loss of around 30 cents.   A...

It's been a couple weeks since I've been able to churn out a weekly summary.  Over those couple weeks we've had mass panic in the markets, followed by capitulation and a strong week following.  During this entire time I didn't panic and sell, however, I didn't jump on some decent opportunities to buy either.  Still have a lot to learn and improve on, I guess. Looking into the week ahead, it's going to be a very busy week and I may struggle to keep up.  I have 3 stocks which will announce this week - Braodwind Energy (BWEN), Ensco PLC (ESV), and On Semiconductor (ONNN).  All of these announcements happen to be on Thursday, too.  Just writing this list and knowing my stocks makes me realize I've made a big mistake in being way too heavy in energy or energy-related names and this is a reason for my portfolio under performance.  I'll have to take time to make a plan to fix this. Broadwind Energy is down just over 14% in the last quarter while the ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Today Honeywell announced 3rd quarter 2014 results and they were excellent to say the least.  Earnings came in at $1.47 per share on $10.1B in sales while the street was expecting $1.42 per share and $10B in sales.  Additionally, they raised the lower end of the 2014 guidance by five cents - the third raise of the year - giving a 2014 earnings estimate range of $5.50 - $5.55.  Besides Earnings and sales, margins were up at the top end of guidance or higher for the quarter as well.  On the qurther, margins expanded 70 basis points, which was higher than expected. Last quarter I explained how aerospce showed some struggles, but ev...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Today Citigroup announced their 2014 third quarter results.  Earnings came in at $1.15, which was above the $1.14 estimates and revenues came in at $19.6B compared to the $19B estimates.  Additionally, they have annoucned that they are exiting consumer operations in 11 markets.  Again, Citi Holdings - the pieces that's being looked to be sold off - provided a nice lift.  All of this combined turns into a good overall report.  What makes this company difficult to gauge is the fact that you never get forward guidance quarterly.  I have trouble trying to predict what the future will look like.  However, I'm going to give it...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Today Pepsi announced their third quarter earnings results and they were quite strong.  Earnings beat estimates, coming in at $1.36 while revenues also grew more than expected, coming in at $17.2B.  On top of that, they delivered the icing on the cake by increasing their 2014 estimates to 8% EPS growth on the year.  Included in this was a 45 basis point increase in margins.  All of this in the middle of what CEO Indra Nooyi calls a "challenging macro environment."   There wasn't much for bad news that you could pull from the call.  Yes, there are signs of economic pressures globally, but that hasn't really shown itself in r...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. In the latest summary, I said the only stock that had earnings announcements that I needed to pay attention to was Alcoa.  This was an inaccurate statement.  Despite all my efforts to find out, it appears that I've missed Pepsico announcing earnings on Thursday.  As such, I want to take a few minutes to lay out what is expected and how my investing plan plays to those expectations. The earnings announcement for Pepsico has the potential to not only affect its own stock, but also the market broadly.  They are an international food and beverage company and have the potential to help set the pulse of the global economy, which currently ...

To say last week was bad might be akin to saying putting salt on a wound tickles.  Pain, blood, and panic might be words often heard when describing what's happened in the markets and none of those words should give you the warm fuzzies.  All we heard this week was how the world economy was getting worse everywhere.  Europe is going back into a recession and Draghi did nothing to help it during his comments, China continues to slow, Russia keeps looking for more sanctions against its country, Brazil and Argentina are falling apart.  Well, you get the idea.  You get this, an increase of IPOs creating more supply again, the US dollar continuing to climb and you get mass selling.  Apparently, we've even had at least 1 hedge fund go under, causing even more mass selling as they liquidate.  All things stated, there is a small, glimmering silver lining that could help our future progress.  The US non-farm payroll report for September was stronger t...