Investment "Logic"

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Post was edited to correct a mistake.  All references to Slumberger were meant to be Transocean and the post has been changed to reflect this. Ensco is an Oil and Gas under water drilling equipment supplier which I'm investigating as a potential position in my portfolio.  Essentially, this is one of the top 3 drilling rig platform producers in the world.  Key competitors are Transocean and SeaDrill.  The drilling industry has been under a lot of pressure over the course of 2014.   Ensco and all of it's major competitors are down 9% or more on the year.  I've noticed a couple drivers for this.  First is demand for the...

To begin with, I sold out of my holdings in John Deere (DE) this week, though not at the prices I wanted to.  By doing this, I've raised some needed cash (now 12.9% of my portfolio) and have lowered the number of holdings so that I'm closer to where I'd like to be.  I anticipate some difficult times ahead for that stock, but we may revisit it again later. Outside of this, the week was rather spectacular.  Very solid earnings from Home Depot launched that stock on the week and we finally saw much stronger results from On Semi and Citigroup.  The various plots of political unrest continue to play games with the market.  For the upcoming week, there are no conference calls to be prepared for and no other key information.  In fact, this will likely be the lightest volume week of the year as investors of all types prepare for the long labor day weekend.  Low volumes really don't indicate price action.  The market can be just as volatile as it ha...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On Tuesday, Home Depot announced their second quarter results for 2014.  When I spoke of this in my weekly summary, I was mixed with both fear of the results we've been seeing from the industry crossed with anticipation and excitement from a management team that has been proven and announced a previous quarter with signs of "robust" sales.  I was feeling cautious, like I should sell at least some of my position, but I was steadfast with management instead, knowing I'd learn a valuable lesson from this experience.  Today I announce that lesson to be this "When you look for stocks, find reliable, strong, confident, and capable leadership ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. As stated in my summary last week, I ranked Deere a 4, meaning I was looking to get out.  Unfortunately, I overstayed my welcome - not selling yesterday when the stock hit $86 as I was intending to do.  Today it got a downgrade and announced more layoffs and as such, I sold my entire lot at $84.85.  While odds are good that I panicked some, I feel this was the right choice to reduce my stock exposure (I'm have too many holdings right now) as well as protect myself from losing money.  I did capture some meager gains, but clearly I left the majority on the table as I should've sold off a couple months ago in the 90s.  This is w...

So we've completed another week midst worldwide turmoil.  Putin continues to play "I love them, I love them not" with Ukraine, Israel and Hammas continue to declare moments of peace, only to have one side or the other fire rockets before the period completes pointing their fingers at the other side while they tell the world who did it, like 2-year olds.  Finally you have ISIS playing the school bully to all of the Kurds in Iraq to the point that they were stranded in the mountains and the US is using air attacks to help get them out of there.  All of this and somehow the market goes up over a percent and at the same time the 10-year treasuries climb (dropping yields) as well.  My portfolio continues to under perform as both Deere and NPS Pharmaceuticals are the driving reasons to my drop in value.  I'm starting to understand what the times look like and how/why my portfolio is under performing.  What I don't seem to know yet is whether I just deal with ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. On Wednesday, John Deere announced their fiscal third quarter results for 2014.  While the past results were rather strong with earnings of $2.33 on $9.5 Billion in sales, it was the forward guidance and leadership comments that caused a lot of concern for where the company and stock is heading.  While I say that results were strong, it's also a matter of comparing what I'm saying they were strong against, which in this case was analyst estimates.  Comparing sales and earnings to a year ago, the results were down 5% and 9% respectively.  This is an indication to the direction in which the company is heading.  They're not growing, ...

For a week riddled with a boat load of geopolitical issues, my portfolio fared decently, gaining half a percent on the week.  Industrials were getting hit hard over the week and had it not been so large a position, I'd be buying Honeywell when it was around $90 after pulling back 7% from its highs.  Other themes that are starting to show some strength is the companies that are national, rather than international.  This should help stocks like Home Depot and Broadwind, though the Russian situation, in particular, adds more risk to the price direction of Pepsico and On Semiconductor.  The former because they have a segment of business in Russia from when they bought one of the largest dairy companies in the country a couple years ago.  The latter because a lot of their business relies on Europe, where economic growth is likely to be hampered by all of the sanctions and tensions with Russia. Only one company in my portfolio reports this week and that's John ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Today NPS Pharmaceuticals shared the results of their second quarter 2014 earnings.  The CEO was "very pleased" with the results.  From an investor's point of view, I'd say the quarter was solid.  They beat one cent earnings estimates by a penny and revenues came in at $56.2 million.  Of this, their Gattex/Revestive drug accounted for $22 Million of the total, over a 350% increase from last year and a 18% increase from last quarter.  They reiterated their guidance of $100 - 110 Million in sales of the drug by the end of the year, though that range was lowered last quarter from $110 - 120 Million.  Over the last quarter, the c...