Investment "Logic"

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. This morning, Broadwind Energy announced their fiscal second quarter results for 2014.  The result for the last quarter were strong, however, they also guided down slightly.  This makes for a somewhat mixed bag to sift through.  Earnings were $0.12, well above the $0.09 estimates.  Revenues came in at $68.4 Million, again above estimates.  In addition to this, margins were up over 4% year over year, and the Gearing business had much improved numbers in both financials and overall efficiency compared to the first quarter.  Though the gearing segment still does not make a profit, it's well diversified and making significant imp...

It was a good news, bad news kind of week.  Good news: both companies reporting this week provided strong quarters with raised guidance.  Pepsico beat estimates along with the guidance upgrade, whereas Encana missed the earnings estimates.  The bad news?  My portfolio was down on the week despite the good news.    Looking forward into the next week, I have two more earnings reports coming.  Both occur on Thursday as a speculation bonanza comes forth.  Braodwind Energy announces in the morning, with earnings estimates slated at $0.09 and revenues at $63.03 Million.  The company just announced contract deals which closed for tower orders for 2015, putting them at 66% filled for the year with more on the way.  CEO announced that he was confident in the continued growth of the company, so this will be the time to help make it count. Removed comments regarding NPS Pharmaceuticals reporting this week.  This was an incorrect statem...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash On Thursday Encana announced their second quarter results for 2014. The results had both positives and negatives to it.  The negatives, primarily was that they missed the analyst earnings estimates of $0.25 and were just under the $1.6 Billion revenues mark (it would round to be in line with expectations).  On the positive side, the company is executing well and are reaching targets well in advance of expectations.  Free cash flow to help solidify the balance sheet has taken the most attention to the space as the company boosted guidance on free cash flows on the year from $2.9 - $3.0 Billion to $3.4 - $3.6 Billion.  This is a significant boost and are results from the sales of some gas positions and the purchase of their Eagle Ford assets which completed in late second quarter. ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash Wednesday, Pepsico announced solid results for the second quarter.  This might be a somewhat muted reaction to the results.  Truth is Pepsi announced a fantastic quarter when you compare what they've delivered compared to what many other similar/competitive companies have announced so far.  This leaves me grateful I didn't sell a single share over the last quarter, but at the same time shameful for having doubt in the company and the stock.  I feared the stock was getting too rich for its growth and the yield was getting too small.  There may be some truth to these items, but interest rates are low, portfolios need to be diversified, and Pepsi has been the best in the consumer goods sector bar none.  Earnings came in at $1.32, which handily beat the $1.23 estimates ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash Yesterday Broadwind announced that they have completed $34 million worth of tower contracts for 2015.  In total, they've sold two-thirds of their production capacity for 2015 with more deals near closing and are also starting on deals for 2016 and beyond.  The stock rallied nicely off of this news only to pull back again today.  Contracts in an industrial like this are nice, but the catch is they're not a great gauge of business because people can back out of contracts.  Essentially, this is what happened the last time we saw the PTC expire.  However, I believe this time is actually different.  The last time the PTC expired, the country was in a severe depression - companies where looking to hold on to cash, joblessness was running rampant, and building towers wasn't cos...

Yesterday I purchased 50 shares of Broadwind Energy at $9 a share.  Today I already have buyer's remorse.  I purchased the shares after it jumped 5% in the previous day and start of yesterday's trading sessions.  This is poor execution and acting on emotion on my part.  I should be buying stock on down days, not chasing them on the way up.  Yes, the stock is down over 25% from it's highs, but there's no guarantee it's going back up that high.  My price target is $10, so I've significantly cut into my potential gains.  Anyhow, I do feel the stock is oversold and there is potential for more gains.  However, PTC regulation still hangs over this stock and will continue to do so.  The key will continue to be windmill sales into 2015.

Despite what was a bit of a roller coaster ride for my portfolio, it ended flat to up slightly.  This was about in line with the S&P 500.  Major drivers to the market over the week were a combination of earnings reports, which were strong for stocks I held, and all of the negative news between a passenger jet being shot down over Ukraine and heated battles between Israel and Hammas escalating through the course of the week.  The latter continues and could end up putting a damper in the market when we open on Monday.  Overall, though, I expect to see continued volatility driven by the market trying to determine fair value when taking into consideration of risks of international actions coupled with results from earnings reports as we enter one of the busiest weeks, generally speaking.  As for my portfolio, I only have two companies reporting - Pepsico on Wednesday, and Encana on Thursday. Pepsico will be announcing their second quarter earnings results on W...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash On Friday, Honeywell discussed their second quarter earnings results.  As we've come to expect from this management team, execution was strong with results beating on both the top and bottom lines and an increase of guidance estimates by raising the lower end of their guidance by five cents.  The range is now $5.45 - $5.55 for 2014 earnings.  In addition, profit margins continue to expand as per the company's plans.  All of this has been done while increasing cash flow conversion.  They've also recently announced their next 5-year plan as they expect to continue to grow earnings at a double-digit pace up through 2018.   As to be expected with a diversified conglomerate such as Honeywell, some areas were strong, while others struggled some.  Aerospace was the lagga...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash Today Citigroup announced and held their 2014 second quarter results.  They managed to beat analyst estimate on both earnings ($1.24/share) and revenues ($19.3B).  Additionally, they announced that they've settled legal issues with the government with their role in the sale of mortgage backed securities at a cost of $7 billion, which was lower than the many 10 billion quotes and demands I was seeing in news reports.  These are all positive results and the stock has popped due to expectations being too low compared to how the company is performing.  The company didn't expand on any details regarding the reasons as to why the Federal Reserve rejected their capital allocation plans in the stress test earlier this year and they've provided guidance that the Net Interest Margin ...

I t's been awhile since I've posted an update like I'm "supposed to."  Not time for being lazy now, though.  Earnings have started and next week is the kickoff for various earnings in my portfolio, with both Citigroup and Honeywell reporting.  That means it's time to get prepared for more work.  Outside of the earnings, I've taken a breather to try to have a clear assessment of my portfolio year-to-date.  I'm not very pleased with the results and I'm not pleased with how many holdings I have.  My target number of holdings is 5 with room to grow to 7 or 8 if I'm holding on to winners I've taken my cash out of a double, or in situations where I'm adding to a new stock as I'm pulling out of another - to which I don't have the cash position to execute either (Big problem I should be fixing).  As I go through earnings, I'll have to pay attention to all of these problems and use the information I gain to find a new, hopefully m...