Investment "Logic"

Last Tuesday, Home Depot announced their first quarter earnings report and essentially blew the cover off of the ball.  Earnings came in at $0.96, which was in-line to slightly below estimates and revenues were slightly lower as well.  All of this was directly related to a very late spring in as much as a third of the chain's retail regions.  Frank Blake and his team reiterated a number of times that these sales would be deferred to the second quarter and to back that claim up, they're already seeing very "robust" sales in May to back those claims.  Additionally, to add fuel to the positive fire, Guidance was raised to $4.42 for the year.  Growth was seen throughout the store, especially in the Kitchen and Bath areas.  Flooring was improving, but impacted by carpeting which tends to do better in warmer weather.  2 signs of continued encouragement is the increase in professional consumer sales as well as a continued increase in average ticket price. ...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. A couple weeks ago, John Deere posted its second quarter earnings reports.  Earnings was a solid beat at $2.65 per share on the quarter vs. the $2.48 consensus.  Earnings were at $9.95B vs. estimates of $9.65B.  All in all, another solid quarterly beat.However, as is the usual script for John Deere earning's calls, the forecast was downbeat.  Ag and Turf revenue is forecast to be down 7% for 2014 and global sales are expected to be down 4%.  One interesting bright spot is the strength seen in the Construction and Forestry segment as they predict a 10% gain in revenues.  This downbeat outlook and less than excited conference cal...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Today, Encana announced their first quarter earnings for 2014.  I have been showing a lot of skepticism for the rise in the stock price that has happened since the start of 2014 and of the leadership of Doug Suttles.  Today, I'd say I was put in my place and as a shareholder, I'm happy to be in that position.  I don't think Encana could've delivered a better quarter.  They beat earnings - turning expected losses for the quarter into a nice profit, they beat on their revenues and cash flow, and they've raised guidance.  Revenue growth is accelerating.  The company strategy, which started just back in November, appears ...

Another wild week is behind us.  Earnings from NPS Pharma took the stock down to lows not seen in almost a year only to watch it all bounce back on Friday.  Encana announces the purchase of some valuable land for what appears to be a sweet price and jumps over 5% and then loses it all and maybe a little more in the 2 days after.  Home Depot is suffering from varying home reports and the institutional banks can't get out of their own way.  In the end, the portfolio and the S&P 500 appear to be trading sideways the last couple months, but the day to day action makes this market a day trader's dream.  It's simply not a time I'm going to make a lot of money and all I can do is try to make sure I'm properly positioned for when the market steps out of this funk.  For the week ahead, my portfolio has 2 earnings reports.  Encana announces it's first quarter on Tuesday.  The stock hasn't been able to push through the $24 mark.  What we hear on thi...

This week NPS Pharma announced their first quarter earnings results.  Overall, the quarter was an utter failure - hitting the trifecta of negative results by missing on earnings, revenues, and lowering guidance for the year.  As a result, the stock was hammered with a near 10% price cut on the announcement.  However, was this an over reaction?  It's possible that some people thought so, as all of the losses incurred were recovered in the next day.  At this point, I believe there is a positive future for the company and the stock, but that doesn't mean this stock is done going down. Recap: Earnings were reported at a loss of six cents per share, lower than the two cent loss expected by wall street analysts.  Revenues were also lower than expected, however, product sales (for Gattex/Revestive) still increased 17% quarter over quarter while revenues from royalties increased slightly.  Leadership wanted to blame the decreased activity o...

When I planned for this week, I somehow managed to miss the all-important jobs number, which came out today.  And wow was it a doozy - well above any estimates out there.  However, that didn't seem to matter to the markets as they popped early and then gave up the ghost and then some the rest of the day.  Certainly I'm sure some of this had to do with how many people stopped looking for jobs, but more so this seemed tied to Russia and what was happening to the US treasuries as they again went lower too.  As for the rest of the week, it was pretty flat overall, but a bit of a roller coaster ride through it again.  Both Broadwind Energy and On Semiconductor reported not great, but respectable numbers as expected.  One stock responded well, the other, more hideously than I could've imagined.   For the next week, the big drivers to my stocks is going to be earnings announcements from some high-growth biotech companies, including my very own NPSP.  N...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash Recap: On Wednesday, Broadwind Energy reported their first quarter financial results.  Earnings were better than the company expected at a 7 cent loss on a slightly below guided $58.8 million revenues.  Gross profits rose 3.3% driving the increase earnings, showing that re-organizational efforts are working well.  Gross profit margins appear to continue to improve quarter over quarter as do revenues.  The company expects to post profits in what is typically a very strong second quarter in the yearly cycle.  The company's efforts to diversify their weldmelts teams should be a strong source of revenue for awhile.  It's known that oil and gas companies as well as a number of other industrial companies are having issues finding welders.  Broadwind has people...

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash Recap: Today On Semi announced first quarter earnings for the 2014 year.  The quarter was ok.  Not great, but not awful.  On the positive sides, the company reported 17 cent earnings (non-GAAP) which was 2 cents above the estimates.  It also had a pretty nice increase in gross margins, which was a result of cost cutting and reorganization efforts showing results on the balance sheet.  It was stated that 60-70% of these measures have been completed with the rest mostly to happen in the second and third quarters.  Additionally the CEO made positive comments regarding the cycles of the business they supply - stating that backlogs and demand seen from their customers indicate that excessive supplies are sold out and they are starting to restock.    The biggest neg...