Investment "Logic"

Well, last week wasn't a good week for me, as the S&P 500 whooped my portfolio, which took a pummeling.  Despite the fact that the Fed isn't raising rates yet, the market is selling off.  I'm not sure if it's people just selling in anticipation of the inevitable, or if people are scared for other reasons.  Economic data around the world hasn't been great, as some of the US indicators have been lower than expected as well.  I'm guessing this is a big reason for fear - fear that we're heading back into recession.  You do see the consumer staples and utilities appearing to hold better than other sectors lately, and though volatile, the 10-year treasury has also stayed fairly flat.  These facts do help provide some credence to the theory.  The problem with that is that those indicators are usually poor tells to how the businesses, themselves, are actually doing.   In addition to the overall disdain to equities that we're currently seeing, the biote

Notes: Stock Ratings: 1 = buy at current stock prices, 2 = buy on a 5-10% dip in stock price, 3 = sell on a 5-10% increase in stock price, 4 = sell at current stock prices to raise cash.  Ratings are based upon 12-18 month outlook on stock direction and not necessarily related to moves I make due to financial positioning. Yesterday, I added another small position to my Isis Pharmaceuticals position.  I was surprised to see the stock down over 7% and with how it had been performing as of late and was setting up, I felt I had to take the chance.  The position was small, meaning there's still plenty of room to buy more at lower prices, so I felt comfortable with my strategy, despite telling myself I wanted to wait until the stock fell below $48 before its latest surge.  Trading in the heat of the moment - it doesn't always work out so well. In hindsight of just a few hours, I realized a few things.  First, biotechs were getting crushed and I didn't know why at the t

Took last week off, since there hasn't been a lot to add to past summaries.  Clearly, this was the week we were waiting for.  On Thursday, the US Fed announced that it will be keeping rates at the same low rates as they're at due to concerns they've seen in waning strength in some of the US economic metrics they've been seeing lately, inflation is not growing, and there are a number of concerns about the global economy.  With the market having fallen rather hard with worries of the global economy, China, and anticipation that the Fed would raise rates, you'd think the market would jump after their announcement, right?  Sorry, that isn't what's happened.  How can that be?  Well, I think we were in a lose-lose situation.  Yes, the markets fell due to global economic concerns and raising rates - which would also cause further strength in the US dollar and potentially have serious impacts to other nations.  However, what happened was in the last week or two,

Last week was a rough one as we headed into Labor Day weekend.  My portfolio fell 1.8%.  Normally, this would leave me disappointed, but the truth is I'm feeling pretty good.  But that's because the S&P 500 fell almost twice that.  Volatility reigned supreme and there was more pressure to the down side than up.  Additionally, the jobs number came in lower than expected, but wages were up slightly and the employment rate was down.  The betting on a September hike increased, and with it, there seems to be a lot of doom to come to stocks when that happens, based solely on the action.  To me, this seems more like a Paquiao vs. Mayweather fight - tons of hype and once it hits, a whole lot of nothing.  If the Fed raises a quarter percent, then what?  You're going to take your money out of stocks and put it into a .5% CD?  Not likely.  Should this encourage the 10 year treasury to get near 3% we might  see some competitive pressure there for some safety sitting in utilitie